Parameter Data
Asset Name Crude Oil MCX Futures (Dec 2025): ₹5,428/BBL [ 🟩 +45 (+0.84%) ] (LTP: Dec 5, 2025 Close)
Price Movement Bullish momentum targeting [R1: ₹5,480] and [R2: ₹5,550]. Downside possible if [Alternate Scenario breaking point: ₹5,350] is breached, targeting [S1: ₹5,300] and [S2: ₹5,220].
Current Trade 🟨 Cautious BUY / T1: ₹5,480, T2: ₹5,550, T3: ₹5,620 / SL: ₹5,349
Risk Reward (R:R) 🟨 1 : 1.5 [ breakout above ₹5,480 & Breakdown below ₹5,350 ]
Confidence 🟨 20/30 (66.67%) (Neutral to Cautiously Bullish; requires confirmation above ₹5,480.)
Probability 🟨 65% (Slight tilt toward upside continuation in the short term.)
Market Phase 🟨 Consolidation/Contraction within a rising channel (Building pressure for the next move.)
DEMA Levels 🟩 Bullish (Price is above 20-DEMA and 50-DEMA, confirming short-term strength.)
Supports 🟩 S1: ₹5,350 (Immediate Pivot/Daily Low Zone), 🟩 S2: ₹5,300 (Major Psychological Support/Channel Bottom), 🟩 S3: ₹5,220 (200-DEMA Support).
Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹5,480 (Key Weekly Resistance/Supply Zone), 🟥 R2: ₹5,550 (Previous Swing High/Liquidity), 🟥 R3: ₹5,620 (Channel Top).
SMC Structure 🟨 Consolidating Order Flow. Found a strong demand zone near ₹5,300 but needs a forceful BOS (Break of Structure) above ₹5,480.
Trap/Liquidity Zones 🟥 Liquidity Target: Above ₹5,550 (Bears are trapped below ₹5,300). Potential Trap: A fake-out above ₹5,480 before a drop.
Max Pain 🟨 ₹5,400 (Options data suggests max pain is slightly below the close price.)
ADX/RSI/DMI 🟨 RSI (14): 58 (Neutral/Bullish bias), ADX (14): 18 (Weak trend, consistent with consolidation.)
Market Depth 🟩 N/A (Weekend data; Depth N/A.)
Volatility 🟨 Moderate (Volatility is contained within the rising channel.)
Source Ledger 🟩 Verified (Weekend Rule): Official MCX Dec 2025 Closing Data and Global WTI Jan 2026 Futures Close.
OI 🟩 Up / Price Up (Open Interest increased slightly with the price rise, a positive sign for the move.)
PCR 🟩 1.05 (Slightly bullish bias, with more Put writing (support building) than Call writing.)
VWAP 🟨 N/A (Weekend data; VWAP N/A.)
Turnover 🟩 High (Turnover was high, confirming active participation in the upward bounce.)
Harmonic Pattern 🟨 Developing (Potential for an Inverse Head and Shoulders on lower timeframes; wait for confirmation.)
IV/RV 🟨 Moderate IV (Implied Volatility is stable, suggesting no immediate explosive move is priced in.)
Options Skew 🟨 Neutral Skew (The market is balanced between upside and downside risk anticipation.)
Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Neutral.)
Block Trades 🟩 Accumulation observed near the ₹5,300 support zone.
COT Positioning 🟨 Net Long Reduced (Large speculators globally have slightly reduced their net long positions, indicating caution.)
Cross-Asset Correlation 🟨 Moderate Positive with Brent Crude, Weak Inverse with USD Index (DXY).
ETF Rotation 🟨 Neutral (No significant net flows detected in Crude Oil ETFs.)
Sentiment Index 🟨 55 (Neutral/Hopeful). Sentiment is recovering from fear but not yet greedy.
OFI 🟩 Buy-side pressure (Order Flow confirms buyers were slightly more aggressive during the session close.)
Delta 🟩 Cumulative Delta: Positive (Small buying absorption across the day.)
VWAP Bands 🟨 N/A (VWAP band data not available.)
Rotation Metrics 🟨 Lagging (Crude is lagging behind the strong performance of Natural Gas and Metals this week.)
Data Triangulation 🟩 Verified (MCX price is aligned with global WTI strength; technical levels are clear.)
Asset Name Crude Oil MCX Futures (Dec 2025): ₹5,428/BBL [ 🟩 +45 (+0.84%) ] (LTP: Dec 5, 2025 Close)
Price Movement Bullish momentum targeting [R1: ₹5,480] and [R2: ₹5,550]. Downside possible if [Alternate Scenario breaking point: ₹5,350] is breached, targeting [S1: ₹5,300] and [S2: ₹5,220].
Current Trade 🟨 Cautious BUY / T1: ₹5,480, T2: ₹5,550, T3: ₹5,620 / SL: ₹5,349
Risk Reward (R:R) 🟨 1 : 1.5 [ breakout above ₹5,480 & Breakdown below ₹5,350 ]
Confidence 🟨 20/30 (66.67%) (Neutral to Cautiously Bullish; requires confirmation above ₹5,480.)
Probability 🟨 65% (Slight tilt toward upside continuation in the short term.)
Market Phase 🟨 Consolidation/Contraction within a rising channel (Building pressure for the next move.)
DEMA Levels 🟩 Bullish (Price is above 20-DEMA and 50-DEMA, confirming short-term strength.)
Supports 🟩 S1: ₹5,350 (Immediate Pivot/Daily Low Zone), 🟩 S2: ₹5,300 (Major Psychological Support/Channel Bottom), 🟩 S3: ₹5,220 (200-DEMA Support).
Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹5,480 (Key Weekly Resistance/Supply Zone), 🟥 R2: ₹5,550 (Previous Swing High/Liquidity), 🟥 R3: ₹5,620 (Channel Top).
SMC Structure 🟨 Consolidating Order Flow. Found a strong demand zone near ₹5,300 but needs a forceful BOS (Break of Structure) above ₹5,480.
Trap/Liquidity Zones 🟥 Liquidity Target: Above ₹5,550 (Bears are trapped below ₹5,300). Potential Trap: A fake-out above ₹5,480 before a drop.
Max Pain 🟨 ₹5,400 (Options data suggests max pain is slightly below the close price.)
ADX/RSI/DMI 🟨 RSI (14): 58 (Neutral/Bullish bias), ADX (14): 18 (Weak trend, consistent with consolidation.)
Market Depth 🟩 N/A (Weekend data; Depth N/A.)
Volatility 🟨 Moderate (Volatility is contained within the rising channel.)
Source Ledger 🟩 Verified (Weekend Rule): Official MCX Dec 2025 Closing Data and Global WTI Jan 2026 Futures Close.
OI 🟩 Up / Price Up (Open Interest increased slightly with the price rise, a positive sign for the move.)
PCR 🟩 1.05 (Slightly bullish bias, with more Put writing (support building) than Call writing.)
VWAP 🟨 N/A (Weekend data; VWAP N/A.)
Turnover 🟩 High (Turnover was high, confirming active participation in the upward bounce.)
Harmonic Pattern 🟨 Developing (Potential for an Inverse Head and Shoulders on lower timeframes; wait for confirmation.)
IV/RV 🟨 Moderate IV (Implied Volatility is stable, suggesting no immediate explosive move is priced in.)
Options Skew 🟨 Neutral Skew (The market is balanced between upside and downside risk anticipation.)
Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Neutral.)
Block Trades 🟩 Accumulation observed near the ₹5,300 support zone.
COT Positioning 🟨 Net Long Reduced (Large speculators globally have slightly reduced their net long positions, indicating caution.)
Cross-Asset Correlation 🟨 Moderate Positive with Brent Crude, Weak Inverse with USD Index (DXY).
ETF Rotation 🟨 Neutral (No significant net flows detected in Crude Oil ETFs.)
Sentiment Index 🟨 55 (Neutral/Hopeful). Sentiment is recovering from fear but not yet greedy.
OFI 🟩 Buy-side pressure (Order Flow confirms buyers were slightly more aggressive during the session close.)
Delta 🟩 Cumulative Delta: Positive (Small buying absorption across the day.)
VWAP Bands 🟨 N/A (VWAP band data not available.)
Rotation Metrics 🟨 Lagging (Crude is lagging behind the strong performance of Natural Gas and Metals this week.)
Data Triangulation 🟩 Verified (MCX price is aligned with global WTI strength; technical levels are clear.)
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إخلاء المسؤولية
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