DAX Will it drop at the top of the 1-year Channel Up?

DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).

Based on the previous declines within the pattern, there are high probabilities of seeing a minimum of -6.50% pull-back. That gives us a Sell Target at 16000. The absolute bottom on the long-term based on the 2023 price action is the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which formed the market Lows of March 20 2023 and October 27 2023.

If the index closes a 1D candle above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up, then we will drop the sell and buy the break-out instead, targeting 17600, which would complete a +20.90% rise from the October Low, symmetrical to the rise on the December 20 2022 Low.


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