I traced back at 3 recessions looking at Business cycle peak, inversion start and recession start. I do notice that there is a small pattern of the Dow increasing right after the bond yield inversion begins and then a quick drop into recession. I have also included our current 2009 to my estimated 2019.
The US still has hopes for a trade deal between China, but I am feeling that China will wait out this president before they cut a deal which could send the US in recession. Thoughts?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288397-now-yield-curve-inverted-watch-recessionary-patterns
Using 2007 leading indicators recession patterns, today MOC compared to 2007, I am estimating a recession between 9 to 18 months. Granted that the 2007, recession was due to the housing crisis, 2019 is more about the trade crisis.
http://www.econpi.com/index.php/road-to-recession
The US still has hopes for a trade deal between China, but I am feeling that China will wait out this president before they cut a deal which could send the US in recession. Thoughts?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288397-now-yield-curve-inverted-watch-recessionary-patterns
Using 2007 leading indicators recession patterns, today MOC compared to 2007, I am estimating a recession between 9 to 18 months. Granted that the 2007, recession was due to the housing crisis, 2019 is more about the trade crisis.
http://www.econpi.com/index.php/road-to-recession
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I was so close.