Incogniteaux

A strange, unexpected breakout

بيع
BINANCE:DOGEUSD   Dogecoin
What we've seen in the last interval is someone making a very big, somewhat foolhardy investment into doge. Unless they know something the rest of the world doesn't, of course.

What it amounted to after the instant sell-off is a fact of the matter that I think a lot of doge enthusiasts have been in denial about. Many people investing into doge think of it as something that was created with good will, something for the benefit of the people that would remove the need for a central authority to verify the value of their currency. It's a system that would secure any transactions done with doge. It's a nice idea, but these same people sometimes think that other forces of capitalism aren't at work, for some reason. They think that, despite the many doge message boards touting it as a way to "go to the moon," it's got some altruistic quality to it that doesn't make it vulnerable to greed or desperation.

If you have countless people waiting to take doge to the moon, particularly those who bought in when it was more expensive than it has been in the last couple of weeks, and they've been watching its value slowly fade away, those people are getting nervous. A guy who works as a restaurant manager and hasn't seen a paycheck since mid-2020 may have had enough money to invest in a meager amount of doge with the hope that it would propel him out of the financial ruin that may be closing its icy hand around him. But if it looks like that meager investment isn't doing what he wanted, and is actually doing the opposite, the first chance he gets to dump at even a small profit will likely be taken.

Whoever just dumped all that money into doge and made it shoot up in the last interval may not have realized that they were making a donation to faithful doge investors like the restaurant manager in the above example. Most of the people who bum-rushed doge aren't diamond-handed traders. They're hopeful people. They're people with faith and resolve, but not as many of them are technically savvy about what kind of game they got themselves into. They're probably more just people in need who are looking for a way out. When push comes to shove, as nervous as they've been while watching it creep downward ever-so-slowly, when it looks like they can make $200 rather than the millions they'd hoped for, they take it.

Doge is priced into being popular with a certain demographic. I see that long shadow (upper wick of this interval's candle) as representing a lot of pent-up anxiety from amateur investors who were feeling good about it for a while, but that euphoria fades and turns into desperation.

I would've liked to see it just stay up even though I have no position right now. That sell-off is a bad sign for doge, honestly. The people who are in it right now are not likely to know the glass ceiling of about .10 that doge has designed into it. They bought doge because it's a crypto they can afford. They aren't likely to buy and hold anything because they've barely got enough to really get by. In my experience talking to a lot of the doge investors on social media, most of them don't know anything about blockchain or crypto and were just full of hopes and dreams. Most of them thought they were getting in early for the next bitcoin without realizing that doge is completely different in how it operates and how much one can reasonably expect its value to be.

I could see doge becoming useful and I could even see it becoming more valuable than it's been, but I won't buy into it until it flash-crashes down to .025 or something similar.

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