The USD index look set to trade to and through 104

We have remained bullish the US dollar the past few weeks, and continue to suspect there are plenty of shorts to be covered as markets finally concede that fewer Fed cuts are coming this year and already priced in.

The dollar has posted a strong rally YTD, and after a brief consolidation momentum is trying to turn higher with a bullish outside candle. It's not major surprise to see it is holding beneath the 200-day EMA, but it did close above the 200-day MA. And if the US delivers a strong set of flash PMI figures or PCE inflation data, we suspect the US dollar can travel to and through 105 on its way to 105.