US DOLLAR Analysis

Respect the Higher Low: The Quiet Power of an Uptrend

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 23 Oct 2025 | Pre–New York Session Outlook
By Daniel Fadeley

The U.S. Dollar continues to show a bullish bias, with higher lows forming consistently across both the weekly and daily structure. This ongoing strength keeps the broader tone positive for USD, while EURUSD and GBPUSD remain under cross-asset pressure.

We’re currently operating inside a bullish range with 97.672 as the range low and 99.205 as the range high.


Context

Momentum favors the dollar as buyers continue defending each pullback. If this month’s bullish structure holds, the market could confirm a longer-term upward phase.

However, conditions are slightly extended on Fibonacci sequence levels, suggesting reduced reward-to-risk for new swing positions until a clean retest offers better value.



Technical Map

Price took out yesterday’s high (98.771) and approaches the range ceiling at 99.205.

Volatility remains elevated through the week, and intraday momentum supports buy-the-dip behavior while daily lows continue to hold.

For cross-assets, this structure implies ongoing pressure on major USD pairs while the dollar holds above recent higher lows.



Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead features several key macro events:

U.S. GDP advance data

Core PCE inflation release

Multiple Federal Reserve speakers

Ongoing U.S. government funding discussions



Impact lens:

Yields rising → typically strengthens USD and tightens global liquidity.

Yields easing → can relieve pressure on risk assets such as equities and crypto.
Liquidity trends show ETF inflows slowing and capital rotating defensively, consistent with cautious macro positioning.

Plan

Current outlook remains bullish within range, focusing on position trades from defended lows and short-term rotational setups during volatility spikes.

Patience near 99.205 is key — a clean breakout with retest would confirm continuation; failure there could mean another controlled rotation inside the range.

Mindset

“Structure builds confidence. Clarity builds control.”
In fast markets, the goal is not prediction but preparation — follow structure, protect capital, and let confirmation lead conviction.

Educational use only — not financial advice.
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