9/6 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
After a significant 4-day trend to the upside, we've entered a period of chop and correction. The ES spent the majority of the session pinned around the 4515 level, punishing over-traders with a late-day dip. After a 180-point rally in the last week of August, ES is now setting up its next move.
Market Outlook: Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World News
Saudi Arabia and Russia extend oil production cuts to the end of the year reigniting fears higher oil prices will increase odds of a global recession.
Key Structures
Big picture structures and levels being watched include the channel (blue/purple dotted) trendline at 4538-42, a broadening formation/megaphone pattern with support at 4487 and resistance at 4565, a yellow declining channel from the August high with a backtest point at 4493, the 4464-67 zone, and the 4409-13 level.
Support Levels
Key supports are at 4503, 4487-93, 4474, 4464-67, 4453, 4448, 4437-40, 4423, 4411-13, 4402, 4389, 4382, 4375, 4360, 4348-50, 4338, 4324-27, 4317, 4311, and 4287-93.
Resistance Levels
Key resistances are at 4509, 4516, 4520, 4527, 4538-41, 4548, 4558, 4565, 4573, 4583, 4592-94, 4607, 4617-20, 4628, 4638-42, 4652, 4668, 4678, 4686-89, and 4705-08.
Trading Plan
The plan is to carefully pick spots for trading, as the current range is expected to continue eating up over-traders. Bids might be placed directly at 4503, with an interest in playing tests or fails of that zone. If we get back up to the 4516-20 resistance, it's likely to clear but may have one final dip. A possible breakout trade is available above 4523, but this would need to be followed by another dip and an acceptance base.
Wrap Up
We've had a super slow start to September and are currently in a choppy, post-rally consolidation period. The general lean is that 4503 and 4487-93 are supports for today. As long as these are defended, we will continue the base building back up to 4516-20. If 4487 fails, it implies ES will need to retrace a large chunk of the late August rally.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
After a significant 4-day trend to the upside, we've entered a period of chop and correction. The ES spent the majority of the session pinned around the 4515 level, punishing over-traders with a late-day dip. After a 180-point rally in the last week of August, ES is now setting up its next move.
Market Outlook: Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World News
Saudi Arabia and Russia extend oil production cuts to the end of the year reigniting fears higher oil prices will increase odds of a global recession.
Key Structures
Big picture structures and levels being watched include the channel (blue/purple dotted) trendline at 4538-42, a broadening formation/megaphone pattern with support at 4487 and resistance at 4565, a yellow declining channel from the August high with a backtest point at 4493, the 4464-67 zone, and the 4409-13 level.
Support Levels
Key supports are at 4503, 4487-93, 4474, 4464-67, 4453, 4448, 4437-40, 4423, 4411-13, 4402, 4389, 4382, 4375, 4360, 4348-50, 4338, 4324-27, 4317, 4311, and 4287-93.
Resistance Levels
Key resistances are at 4509, 4516, 4520, 4527, 4538-41, 4548, 4558, 4565, 4573, 4583, 4592-94, 4607, 4617-20, 4628, 4638-42, 4652, 4668, 4678, 4686-89, and 4705-08.
Trading Plan
The plan is to carefully pick spots for trading, as the current range is expected to continue eating up over-traders. Bids might be placed directly at 4503, with an interest in playing tests or fails of that zone. If we get back up to the 4516-20 resistance, it's likely to clear but may have one final dip. A possible breakout trade is available above 4523, but this would need to be followed by another dip and an acceptance base.
Wrap Up
We've had a super slow start to September and are currently in a choppy, post-rally consolidation period. The general lean is that 4503 and 4487-93 are supports for today. As long as these are defended, we will continue the base building back up to 4516-20. If 4487 fails, it implies ES will need to retrace a large chunk of the late August rally.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
