Last Week :
Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested.
We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets.
This Week :
Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours.
Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it...
Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside.
IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down.
For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25
If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue
Support // Current 4487-79
Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45
Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation
Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383