$ETH - Could Long, but not yet - Below 1194 *SMT*

*SMT = Smart Money Theory. See Related Idea for Tuorial/Explaination on Smart Money

Keeping to the principles of SMT, There are two Redeliver-Rebalances below current market price. A redliver Rebalance is like a fair value gap except where the Wicks don't touch, a presiding wick outreaches a proceeding candle. These act as imbalances i which price seeks. We should see the price possibly move up to the bearish order bock . Why? to suck in all the buyers. Then Smart Money Takes the chart against the buyers (CHARTED HERE:

After bouncing off the bearish order block it should seek that imblanace where the Redeliver-rebalances are. It should fill the small 15 min one or just run right through it, to the second one which is near 1194. The 11 94 i also near the Smart Money Buy Zone or discount of the current "wave" (Last low before breaking and closing above the preceding high); At that point Smart Money will then buy ETH at a discount rate and should take the price higher. How much higher? I don't know because I'll need to see the price action on the way down... it could go even lower. So for the safety of my account, I'm playing it safe and only going to where I the it will travel the last furthest. It could drop and fill the R-R and hit the Bullish Order Block at 1192.68 before we see a hard bounce up again.

I have it going to that low until there until the "Crypto week/day" ends. After that it's a waiting game to see where it goes, but I still have it ultimately going as low as 860. The current -1 standard deviation of the current high/Low is actually around 804 where there's more confluence for price to reach, but playing it safe I'm thinking 860, that 804 mark where the Weekly fair value gap is below the sell side Liquidity

All we can do now is wait

Happy Trading and good luck

Again, this information comes from my observational training and mentoring under ICT.

ETHUSD ETH1!
ETHUSDT.P ETH.D

تعليق:

The 1 hour Fair value gap needs mitigated. Which means that price needs to filll the gap going both directions. After returning up to fill the rest of the gap is when we should see it attack the Bearish order Block

تعليق:

Well it appears that it cam down into the 1st imbalance (15 min redeliver-REBALANCE / 1 HOUR FAIR VALUE GAP) Now it looks as if it could be moving u into the area I was thinking it would get to first. But that large wick down is zlso a liquidity run. Testing liquidity of hose in the market, if they're chasing it or releasing liquidity from Entries. This will cause a lot of retailers to chase the price up as they see that as a reversal pattern. When I usually see that as a "make way, I'm coming through this way in a little bit" so we'll see

تعليق:

It's now bouncing off the top of that same fair value gap

تم فتح الصفقة:

And Here it comes, the fall after the entry

تعليق:

80% of my profit taken, stop loss moved to entry, letting the other 20% move to the full take profit.

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف:

Boom! I win.

تعليق:

Second target hit. The 1 hour fair value gap.

تعليق:

تعليق:

Good question presented by an someone observing if it would get below 1100. My short answer, Yes. When? I don't know. But here's my explaination

" I'm expecting it to get down to 1135. That is where the bottom of the current 1 hour fair value gap is. Now, that's as low as I'm expecting it this week. Within each asset there is a weekly profile and I'm exxpecting it to start going higher starting wednesday-ish after it it 1135. Next week is a different story. Here's the current chart as to where I think it will go

as far as 1100. That is where there is a bullish order block
(1 HOUR)

4 HOUR

The daily, howevewr, is at the wick, so if anything, it could bounce up around that level to about 1125 and then dip even lower because the liquidity level OR .. bounce from h=that 1122-1125 to even higher. Its all going to depend n what time and day it is when it get's near these levels. Hence why I called the 1194 and the very end of the week. It was part of the daily/weekly profile
1.)

2)

Considering there's sell side liquidity with equal lows around 1071, I would expect it to drop below that. Just not sure when.
"