ETH at decision time, second and last chance to move up

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I think ETH is at an important crossroad now. We had a breakout from what looks to be a clear triangle. But the volume at the breakout has been very bad. That's why it has been dropping again. At the moment we are at the support zone again, so i think the decision for the coming month could be made the coming days. I have drawn 3 scenario's, 2 bearish and one bullish.

1) The bullish one we need to see a good rally, with volume this time and brake the previous high.
2) The worst bearish scenario, we don't see a bounce up at all and just break the current support and we continue to drop breaking support levels.
3) The third version shows the current bullish pattern will create a wave up, but will fall short on volume and conviction from the bulls. In other words, a failed rally with low buying volume, where the bears take over at the first resistance because there are not enough bulls.

Current pattern looks like a bullish wedge and it's at a support level. I think it's worth the shot, great risk reward. I am starting out with with a 33% position size and and will double at the break of the first red resistance and increase to 100% at the break of the bigger resistance. During the way up moving the stop higher as well.

If the plan fails, small loss and up to the next trade.


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Previous analysis:

١٠ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

The wedge broke on the upside and the first small resistance broke as well. But we still don't see any real volume at the moment. Making option 3 the most likely now, but volume could still happen of course. I don't see anything big happening until Bitcoin is able to get above the 6400/6430 again. 6500 would give the market more confidence again. So still tricky at the moment and i am keeping close stops.

١٠ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

I got a lot of messages of what the game plan here is and how to trade it. That's something you have to decide your self. The first "target" has been reached already which is a heavy resistance. The low volume makes it impossible for me to say if we break up or not.

- So safe play is taking profit at that resistance and buying it back after the break out.
- Aggressive play is holding the position and simply wait for the break out.
- Wisest play would be, taking 50% partial profit at that red zone and increase again if that resistance breaks.

You need to make this choice BEFORE even entering the trade, otherwise you let emotions make the decision for you.

I would be moving stops towards entry now or to the red zone around 213.

١١ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Channel broke and we have been dropping since. So far scenario 3 has been playing out to the point, so it is becoming more realistic now, a break of the 209ish low would confirm it.
I have added a new third scenario now, showing buying support again around the 210. If bitcoin can stay above the 6300/6330 support zone, it is a very likely scenario.

١١ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Bitcoin slipped more than anticipated but so far it starting to look like a small bear trap. ETH has therefore droppen more as well. Reaching the target of that small H&S.
There is an even bigger H&S in play here, but if the bulls can get above the 214 it gets invalidated. We could expect a countermove up if that happens.

١٢ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

The H&S got invalidated now. On the left we can see it on that daily wick. Usually we get a counter move, however, the volume on that daily candle is low, so it's not a guarantee move. But it is a Sunday volume though, which is usually the lowest volume day after Saturday.