When I look at chart technically, I would gladly short. But there are strong fundaments that appear not to be fully included in the graph. UN's Security Council is meeting today and as far as I am aware, neither member agrees with Turkey's strike against Kurds. Russia and China are probably indifferent, rest of the members is high likely to stand against Turkey. What are possible scenerios?
If Erdogan stops the assaults, it will be a fine embarrassment in front of public. If he continues, then sanctions are an only probable option. Technically speaking, the direction should, lira should go down after it bounces off a trend line and resistance which happens to be in the low-volume area. Given fundamentals that have already caused a move that would probably come either way, I think we will have at least a minimum of a false breakout towards point of control. I expect a reaction there. If it is an explosive move, I will just move stop loss and wait for local high to be reached again. There, it literally must react, unless Turkey completely sinks under the weight of sanctions.
If Erdogan stops the assaults, it will be a fine embarrassment in front of public. If he continues, then sanctions are an only probable option. Technically speaking, the direction should, lira should go down after it bounces off a trend line and resistance which happens to be in the low-volume area. Given fundamentals that have already caused a move that would probably come either way, I think we will have at least a minimum of a false breakout towards point of control. I expect a reaction there. If it is an explosive move, I will just move stop loss and wait for local high to be reached again. There, it literally must react, unless Turkey completely sinks under the weight of sanctions.
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Seems like a trendline is holding. I trade it based on 20-minute chart. It seems it will go down and complete a triangle on the daily first. At least technically.