Trade planning leading up to the USD NFP news event
The Euro have been trending down in the short term (past week).
Hence, I anticipate that the Euro could break support level and head further down, given that strong NFP numbers are released.
Although I do not want to predict the possible NFP data, I am preparing for a possible good NFP data, due to:
- ADP data was stronger than projected
- NFP projections are rather conservative (easy to beat)
- Hourly earnings and unemployment rate expectations are flat.
One of the possible factors that could complicate the analysis, is the impact of the US strike in Syria, leading to a monetary flight to safety.
What do you think of this analysis?
Looking forward to your comments below
The Euro have been trending down in the short term (past week).
Hence, I anticipate that the Euro could break support level and head further down, given that strong NFP numbers are released.
Although I do not want to predict the possible NFP data, I am preparing for a possible good NFP data, due to:
- ADP data was stronger than projected
- NFP projections are rather conservative (easy to beat)
- Hourly earnings and unemployment rate expectations are flat.
One of the possible factors that could complicate the analysis, is the impact of the US strike in Syria, leading to a monetary flight to safety.
What do you think of this analysis?
Looking forward to your comments below
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In this case, because the NFP came out as a shocker
Actual: 98k
Forecasted: 174K
This drastic difference in the released data, due to a seasonality of employment, caused a signficant, but short term, weakening of the USD.
Point to consider is suitability of the risk:reward ratio
Actual: 98k
Forecasted: 174K
This drastic difference in the released data, due to a seasonality of employment, caused a signficant, but short term, weakening of the USD.
Point to consider is suitability of the risk:reward ratio