Under macroeconomic influences the underlying in focus should be reconsidered - rather have a look at the CHF which is always the save haven and in such periods shows much more harmonic movement to measure than humbling FX pairs. However the bubble left by the CNH weakening started at EURUSD 1.11171 - but this is just an effect not the cause. If you compare the USDCNH the same bubble started already 11 days earlier. Its trade war, if you are counting waves now you will not sleep for a while ;)