With implied volatility at an all-time high, it seemed safer and more straight forward to short stocks instead of buying put options. I've been monitoring Expedia for abit and it seems like while there has been price retracements upwards the volume has been decreasing. The move up, in my opinion is driven by the stimulus measures.
The stimulus measures are targetted to halt/slowdown the economic fall out due to the virus and as such it is very domestic driven. Without a proper vaccination, countries will continue to limit and discourage foreign travel especially for holidays which are non-essential. Furthermore, with the economic uncertainty, people will be tightening their belts at least for 2020.
TLDR
- Dying volume limiting upside movement
- new RSI highs but price still below previous high
- Travel as a key at-risk industry
The stimulus measures are targetted to halt/slowdown the economic fall out due to the virus and as such it is very domestic driven. Without a proper vaccination, countries will continue to limit and discourage foreign travel especially for holidays which are non-essential. Furthermore, with the economic uncertainty, people will be tightening their belts at least for 2020.
TLDR
- Dying volume limiting upside movement
- new RSI highs but price still below previous high
- Travel as a key at-risk industry
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Hit my stop loss as it went to the last high. This is a lesson for me that the market can remain irrational longer than me