Fed pivot indicator

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This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral.

To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th

Or maybe they'll allow a brief spike above, and given the length of that chart, maybe 'brief' can be a number of months

But as far as what would be normal fed behavior, we're at the tightening limit for interest rates


twitter.com/ThHappyHawaiian/status/1546527570748899328

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This is busted and future looks grim.