GBPUSD Short trade

GPBUSD broke the upwards channel from the past weeks and so far it has tested it as a resistance. The last daily candle also has a bearish weight on this asset. The risk reward is good.

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So this one clearly failed, well it's part of the trading game. No matter how good are bad we are, loosing trades will always happen. But what we CAN do is, look back and evaluate what went wrong to improve our chances. So lets do that here.

There was a clear uptrend channel here which broke on the downside. That drop it made (yellow) is normally a big sell signal. However that bounce (blue) did make me worry a bit, because it was just too big. That was the reason why i waited before even giving the trade. After waiting patiently, it started to look like that former support line turned into a resistance that's why i decided to take on the trade. So actually no mistakes were made here, expect that for the future we need to be more careful if we see a big bounce like we saw here.

Another fact which is good to see, since most of you are Crypto traders. Here we can see that the Bitcoin whales or no more than former Wall Street traders, something i have been saying many times in 2018. See how they made a "Bart" move, moving sideways, then break upwards and an immediate dump to the other direction. On the right we can see they did this few more times.

In hindsight we can probably say, it should have dropped more and sooner after that red entry zone. Since it didn't, it has become clear the market had something else in mind.

Next step is still difficult to judge, because just like with Bitcoin, they can still make a drop. That would mean they did a double play, small bear shake out, dump the price to shake out longs, make this rally to shake out bears again and to finally make last move. This last move should be the real direction of the market for the coming weeks or longer. At the moment it's still at a level that the real direction is down. But too soon to say now. Probably need to see a break of our red entry zone of yesterday.