Eurodollar, Negative Interest Rates, and the S&P (Post 8ish)
Twice since 2000 the eurodollar future as pumped to near 100 and at both times the midpoint consolidation marked a bull trap within the S&P. Our current set of circumstances is unique as a third touch at resistance puts the eurodollar future above 100, which signals negative interest rates in the real world and outside the control of the Federal Reserve. How the Fed will respond to this remains to be seen. How market will respond to this remains to be seen. There are several countries with interest rates ranging from -0.1 to -0.75 and if the Eurodollar goes above 100 we should see a whole lot more.
investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/051415/5-countries-lowest-interest-rates.asp
The chart below zooms in on the eurodollar and SPX. The eurodollar and SPX both hit a local low at the same time and the Eurodollar shows a textbook BARR bottom. It is clear that the flagpole bewteen consolidation 1 and 2 was timed with the dump in SPX. Consolidation 2 overlaps what I believe to be a bear trap in the eurodollar. Another flag pole should throw SPX price action to the ground.
thepatternsite.com/barrb.html
Here is a side by side view on the eurodollar and S&P. As I have recently been mentioning elsewhere I am using the Volatility Stop to try and help be refine the timing of my entries and steadying my hands to help me let my winners run when they are in a consolidation pattern and I start to doubt my big picture. The chart has a lot of sound theory, SPX support flipping to resistance, a indicator suggesting trend reversal on SPX, a micro acceding triangle in the Eurodollar chart and a stop loss all in one.
If we see the SPX price action reverse and close a candle body above 3166 the trade is over or on hold. If the eurodollar dumps as the acceding triangle fails to to perform the trade is canceled or on hold.
Here is another look at an asset that had a BARR bottom and hit full flag pole performance after Consolidation 2. There are a lot of differences between the eurodollar and bitcoin and the main one would be the macro-structure both are in. Key would be bitcoin hitting a lower high on this BARR bottom but I am calling for a higher high on the eurodollar. Clear performance should only be a week or two away. Really close.
Of course, I am not a financial advisor, nor am I a certified market technician. Take a look at my linked post, you will see me being right on a lot of theory, but you will also see me getting the timing wrong quite a bit. There was still a lot of money to be made on the swing trades, but I was looking for that big move that I think is coming shortly. I still see this as a subvert currency war against China due to their eurodollar exposure and how the US has been probably using the Dollar Milkshake Theory to influence the dollar shortage so it will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially in the Chinese market.
investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/051415/5-countries-lowest-interest-rates.asp
The chart below zooms in on the eurodollar and SPX. The eurodollar and SPX both hit a local low at the same time and the Eurodollar shows a textbook BARR bottom. It is clear that the flagpole bewteen consolidation 1 and 2 was timed with the dump in SPX. Consolidation 2 overlaps what I believe to be a bear trap in the eurodollar. Another flag pole should throw SPX price action to the ground.
thepatternsite.com/barrb.html
Here is a side by side view on the eurodollar and S&P. As I have recently been mentioning elsewhere I am using the Volatility Stop to try and help be refine the timing of my entries and steadying my hands to help me let my winners run when they are in a consolidation pattern and I start to doubt my big picture. The chart has a lot of sound theory, SPX support flipping to resistance, a indicator suggesting trend reversal on SPX, a micro acceding triangle in the Eurodollar chart and a stop loss all in one.
If we see the SPX price action reverse and close a candle body above 3166 the trade is over or on hold. If the eurodollar dumps as the acceding triangle fails to to perform the trade is canceled or on hold.
Here is another look at an asset that had a BARR bottom and hit full flag pole performance after Consolidation 2. There are a lot of differences between the eurodollar and bitcoin and the main one would be the macro-structure both are in. Key would be bitcoin hitting a lower high on this BARR bottom but I am calling for a higher high on the eurodollar. Clear performance should only be a week or two away. Really close.
Of course, I am not a financial advisor, nor am I a certified market technician. Take a look at my linked post, you will see me being right on a lot of theory, but you will also see me getting the timing wrong quite a bit. There was still a lot of money to be made on the swing trades, but I was looking for that big move that I think is coming shortly. I still see this as a subvert currency war against China due to their eurodollar exposure and how the US has been probably using the Dollar Milkshake Theory to influence the dollar shortage so it will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially in the Chinese market.
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