GEMI IPO: Watch for Firefly-like Pattern

أمس

Gemini Space Station (GEMI) priced its IPO at $28/share. If opening trades push it far above the IPO level, the setup resembles Firefly Aerospace (FLY). Recall: FLY priced at $45, opened near $70 (+55%), then retraced as institutions took profits and retail demand cooled.

The mechanics are similar: IPO allocations often exit after early gains, while retail hype fuels stretched opens. Space IPOs in 2025 have shown this volatility. If GEMI opens 2× its IPO price, a pullback is statistically likely.

Takeaway: Monitor the opening print vs IPO price. A gap too far may offer short-term fade opportunities, just as FLY demonstrated.

أمس

ملاحظة

I was comparing IPO hype, but I wrongly described GEMI as a space play—unlike Firefly (FLY), GEMI’s business is in crypto, not aerospace.

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ملاحظة

GEMI’s IPO was oversubscribed ~20×, compared to Bullish’s 12–15× that peaked around 3× IPO, which suggests demand could drive GEMI toward a 4× multiple (~$112) in the first session. The Winklevoss name adds extra retail hype, increasing odds of a short-term spike. If that happens, short-dated puts (10–14 days) would likely price at roughly 10% of the stock value, meaning about $10–12 per share at those levels, reflecting high implied volatility in debut IPO options.

قبل ١٨ ساعة

ملاحظة

Plan: buy puts if GEMI spikes to $110–115, then sell into the fade.