HPE Earnings Trade Idea – Moderately Bullish Setup into 6/6 Expi

📈 HPE Earnings Trade Idea – Moderately Bullish Setup into 6/6 Expiry
🗓️ Earnings Date: June 4 (AMC) | 🧮 Expected Move: ±7.3%
🎯 Targeting breakout past $18.00 resistance with call option sweep
🧠 Multi-Model Summary & Sentiment
Model Bias Strategy Strike Entry PT SL Conf.
Grok Mod. Bullish Buy Call 18.00 0.58 1.00 0.25 70%
Claude Mod. Bearish Buy Put 17.50 0.69 1.00 0.45 68%
Llama Neutral/No Edge No Trade — — — — <60%
Gemini Mod. Bullish Buy Call 18.00 0.58 1.16 0.58 65%
DeepSeek Mod. Bullish Buy Call 18.00 0.58 1.16 0.25 70%

📊 Key Technicals & Setup
Historical EPS moves: ±4.5%–8.6% range typical

Current setup: Coiled between 50/200-day MAs

Open Interest: Clustered at $17.50–$18.00

IV Rank: 0.75 (elevated, but tradable)

Max Pain: $17.50 — possible pin risk

AI Narrative Tailwinds: Target price $19.98 (per Gemini model)

🧠 Strategy Logic
Majority model consensus = Moderately Bullish
We're targeting a single-leg, short-term call to capture upside earnings momentum

🎯 Trade Setup

Instrument: HPE

Direction: CALL (LONG)

Strike: $18.00

Expiry: 2025-06-06

Entry Price: $0.58

Profit Target: $1.16 (100% gain)

Stop Loss: $0.25 (~43% loss)

Entry Timing: Before earnings close (June 4, AMC)

⚠️ Risk Management & Exit Plan
⛔ Stop-loss: Hard stop at $0.25

🎯 Profit-taking: Scale out at $1.00–$1.16

📆 Time-based exit: Close before Friday if no momentum

💼 Size: Max 2–3% of total portfolio due to IV crush risk

🚩 Key Risks
IV crush post-earnings could negate even correct directional bets

Earnings miss or weak guidance = breakdown toward $17.00

Max pain gravity around $17.50 could suppress movement into Friday