Initial Claims vs. SPX - Close to a Cross
Cross = very negative, and typically occurs during a fed rate cutting cycle. These often top-tick markets, and this has been a very reliable indicator across all the bull and bear markets for quite some time.
Note - I use ICSA because despite it being noisy, it's actually a cleaner data series when you just smooth it with a moving average (I use EMA). It's not subject to as much potential bias or data issues as some of the other unemployment metrics are.
Note - I use ICSA because despite it being noisy, it's actually a cleaner data series when you just smooth it with a moving average (I use EMA). It's not subject to as much potential bias or data issues as some of the other unemployment metrics are.
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