IMX → Immutable Going Into a Nose Dive!? We're Almost There.

١٤ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

IMX is deep into its bull trend along with the rest of the crypto market. We have fewer signs of a reversal on this chart compared to others, but many of the same themes are playing out.

How do we trade this? 🤔
We have three pushes to the upside in a bull channel, an RSI at 73.00, and an upcoming Resistance Zone that support the idea of a reversal. However, we're lacking any kind of confirmation. It's reasonable to look at this chart with a bullish bias and prepare for small position long scalps, but I wouldn't be swinging for the fences with a massive long to the upside, not without more price action and show of support to confirm.

One potential trade is to let the price reject from the Resistance Zone and with some confirmation candles closing on or near their lows, take a standard 1:2 Risk/Reward short position.

Until then, it's reasonable to stay on the sidelines until more price action plays out.


💡 Trade Idea 💡

Short Entry: $2.53
🟥 Stop Loss: $3.00
✅ Take Profit #1: $1.58
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2


🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑

1. Bull Channel, Bias to Long.
2. Three pushes up in a bull trend. Could be near end of Trend.
3. Gap to 30EMA, look for Support.
4. RSI at 73.00 and above Moving Average. Need to fall below Moving Average for short.
5. Bitcoin is running hot to the upside, risk of trend change.


⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!


Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!

٢٠ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

The premise of this analysis is still valid! As depicted, IMX came back down and tested the bull channel support has has just put in a higher high. The current Daily candle will close in an hour and twenty minutes, we need it to close on or near its high to increase the probability that it will make contact with the Resistance Zone. Per my original analysis, we need a strong sell candle at the Resistance Zone followed by a retested and confirmation candle closing on or near its low to justify a short.

Until then, we should wait on the sidelines for more price action. More updates to come as the events unfold!

٢٨ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

We're still waiting for the sell signal! The price is right at the Resistance Zone and flirting with the idea of breaking into it. This is a moment where you neither long or short; too close to a major resistance level to long, no short signal to justify a short.

The price action will have to give us an answer soon given we've been at this level for about a week. I would even be skeptical about longing above Resistance given how far into the bull trend we are. Watch Bitcoin make the attempt to $46,000 in the coming days, wait for the response from the entire crypto market. I think a short opportunity is coming soon!

٣١ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

تم فتح الصفقة

IMX has showed us the sell signal we need! Zooming into the 4HR chart, we have four sell signals printed with two of them below the 30EMA, which is key. We have enough price action to enter a short position. Updated entry is $2.19, first take profit at $1.72, swing the rest to 1:3 Risk/Reward at $0.78 or when a bull reversal shows itself. 1:2 Risk/Reward is the more likely second take profit target being at major support. Take half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward and move the stop loss up to the entry price to secure profits.

There is a good chance the 4HR 200EMA will show some support. Expect a bounce at that level, possibility it could show a continuation of the trend. What we need to see is a "dead cat bounce" or more technically, a small sign of support followed by strong bear price action closing below the 200EMA.

١ يناير

تم فتح الصفقة

Watch these next bars for a close above the 4HR 30EMA. We want to avoid that close and more specifically, a higher high. If we receive this, it's reasonable to pull out of the trade and wait for another short entry. The 4HR bar close should not be above $2.35. Let's keep an eye on it and adjust or bias accordingly!

١ يناير

تم فتح الصفقة

Hourly candles are at the 200EMA, RSI just about 70.00. 4HR candle just above the 30EMA, the last 4HR candle before the Daily close. Let's wait for this Daily candle to close to determine our next move. If we get a higher high, time to get out and wait for another entry. If we close bear below the 4HR 200EMA, Daily 30EMA and back into the micro bear channel, the trade can stay open.

٣ يناير

ملاحظة

IMX and the rest of the crypto market, sold off after Bitcoin reached it's $46,000 measured move target as described in my recent Bitcoin analysis:

IMX closed a bear candle with a massive wick on this hourly chart. At the end of a bear trend, this would be considered a sign of bull strength! That is not the case here, this is a bear sign at the end of the bull trend. A second sign of weakness on this chart and that second sign is even more clear on my bitcoin analysis. We have had two large sell-offs at this key level, we should be looking for more bear action moving forward.

Lets watch these next hourly and 4HR candles closely. There is a slight chance at another attempt at resistance around $2.60, but I sure wouldn't be longing here. The short remains in play!

٨ يناير

تم فتح الصفقة

IMX is currently attempting to break the micro bear channel support line. We have 1 hour and 46 minutes left on this 4hr candle and if we close below the support line, there's a very good chance we get follow-through to our first take profit. That first take profit includes half of our total position and when combined with moving our stop loss to our entry price, locks in our profits.

The remainder of our position will be held unless 1 of 2 conditions is met:

1. We hit our second take profit at $1.35
2. IMX prints a bull reversal patten at which point, we can analyze the chart and determine if it's time to get out

٩ يناير

تم فتح الصفقة

IMX fell and hit hit $1.7496, just *barely* missing our first take profit target of $1.7225. The premises of this analysis has not yet been broken and I do not believe this is a reversal signal that should convince us to abandon this trade. We have not broken resistance of the micro bear trend, the pullback in response to Bitcoins breakout of $46,000 failed to break the EMA ribbons, and we have room to fall on the RSI.

If the price closes above the EMA ribbons and Bitcoin shows similar signs of not slowing down, we can exit the trade and take what little profits we have left. Until then, we should hold steady and watch the next moves unfold.

١٠ يناير

تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا

IMX responded to Bitcoins relentless bullish price action and came screaming above the 30EMA and 200EMA ribbons on the 1HR chart! As described in my previous update, a close above either of the EMA ribbons was reason enough to exit the trade. The 30EMA on the 4HR mirrors the 200EMA on the 1HR. Using the 1HR chart to watch this movement closely, that final close circled in yellow, was our reason to get out.

I closed this position with 6% in the profits! We almost had our first take profit hit, but didn't get to lock in profits this time. This position size was about twice my SEI position, but still only 0.5% of my total equity since its a highly volatile alt coin.

For more live updates on my current trades:

1. USDJPY is locked in profit after my first take profit was hit (120 pips of profit) with the second half of my trade currently 126 pips in the profit.

2. USDCAD is currently 49 pips in the profit, price action is printing nicely based on our analysis.