Daily Market Update for 3/8
Summary: An intraday rally across equities faded as oil price volatility kept investors guessing.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, March 8, 2022
Facts: -0.28%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 26%, Body: 1% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Lower high, lower low, failed intraday rally
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thin body in lower half of candle, very long upper wick
Advance/Decline: 0.87, more declining than advancing stocks
Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.56%), RUT (+0.60%), VIX (-3.62%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.21%) at the top. Health (XLV -2.04%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -2.70%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
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Market Overview
An intraday rally across equities faded as oil price volatility kept investors guessing.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.28% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day as an intraday rally attracted bulls. The rally failed after topping 13,000 and the Nasdaq closed near where it opened. The 1% red body is below a long upper wick. The closing range was 26%. The lower high and lower low continues a downtrend. There were more declining than advancing stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) was able to hold onto a 0.60% gain. The small-cap index gained nearly 3% intraday. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.72% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.56%. The VIX Volatility Index is still high but declined -3.62% today.
Growth sectors rose to the top of the S&P 500 sector list, but only two sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.21%) held onto gains. Health (XLV -2.04%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -2.70%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Trade Balance data for January showed more imports than expected relative to exports. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was higher than expected at 2.8 million barrels vs an expected shortfall of -0.833 million barrels.
The US Dollar index (DXY) finally pulled back from its recent gains, declining -0.16% today. US Treasury Yields gained and the gap between long term and short term yields widened some. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Oil topped $130 a barrel intraday but settled at $127. Silver and Gold rose sharply. Aluminum futures fell back from recent gains.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.801. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained deep in the Extreme Fear area.
Three of the big six mega-caps gained today. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG) climbed by +2.46%, +0.76%, and +0.57% respectively. The other three all lost around -1%, giving up intraday gains.
Chevron (CVX) was the best mega-cap for the day, gaining +5.24%. Coca-Cola Company (KO) had the biggest loss in the mega-cap list, losing -3.96% after the company joined other corporations exiting Russia.
GrowGeneration (GRWG) was at the top of the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +11.07%. New energy stocks, Enphase (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG) followed in the list with +10% gains. Ath the bottom of the list was CrowdStrike (CRWD), which fell -6.35%.
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Looking ahead
JOLTs Job Openings data for January will be available after the market opens on Wednesday. We will also get the weekly Crude Oil Inventories data in the morning. There is a 10y Treasury Note auction in the afternoon.
MongoDB (MDB), H&R Block (HRB), and StoneCo (STNE) are some of the earnings reports tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq made an attempt to get back above 13,000 today, but closed below the area, continuing a downtrend over the past five days.
The one-day trend line is upward and points to the same area as the trend line from the 2/10 high. That would be a +2.13% advance for Wednesday.
The five-day trend line points to a -1.94% decline.
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Wrap-up
It was disappointing to see the intraday rally fade, but I think we should expect more of these whipsaw moves as good news and bad news emerges over the Ukraine conflict, the oil crisis, and potential Fed actions this month.
I also don't think we are at the bottom of this correction. We can expect to see 12,000 before we get a solid support area and the potential to move higher. Still, expectations are not predictions.
The expectation for tomorrow is Lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, March 8, 2022
Facts: -0.28%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 26%, Body: 1% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Lower high, lower low, failed intraday rally
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thin body in lower half of candle, very long upper wick
Advance/Decline: 0.87, more declining than advancing stocks
Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.56%), RUT (+0.60%), VIX (-3.62%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.21%) at the top. Health (XLV -2.04%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -2.70%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
An intraday rally across equities faded as oil price volatility kept investors guessing.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.28% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day as an intraday rally attracted bulls. The rally failed after topping 13,000 and the Nasdaq closed near where it opened. The 1% red body is below a long upper wick. The closing range was 26%. The lower high and lower low continues a downtrend. There were more declining than advancing stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) was able to hold onto a 0.60% gain. The small-cap index gained nearly 3% intraday. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.72% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.56%. The VIX Volatility Index is still high but declined -3.62% today.
Growth sectors rose to the top of the S&P 500 sector list, but only two sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.21%) held onto gains. Health (XLV -2.04%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -2.70%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Trade Balance data for January showed more imports than expected relative to exports. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was higher than expected at 2.8 million barrels vs an expected shortfall of -0.833 million barrels.
The US Dollar index (DXY) finally pulled back from its recent gains, declining -0.16% today. US Treasury Yields gained and the gap between long term and short term yields widened some. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Oil topped $130 a barrel intraday but settled at $127. Silver and Gold rose sharply. Aluminum futures fell back from recent gains.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.801. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained deep in the Extreme Fear area.
Three of the big six mega-caps gained today. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG) climbed by +2.46%, +0.76%, and +0.57% respectively. The other three all lost around -1%, giving up intraday gains.
Chevron (CVX) was the best mega-cap for the day, gaining +5.24%. Coca-Cola Company (KO) had the biggest loss in the mega-cap list, losing -3.96% after the company joined other corporations exiting Russia.
GrowGeneration (GRWG) was at the top of the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +11.07%. New energy stocks, Enphase (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG) followed in the list with +10% gains. Ath the bottom of the list was CrowdStrike (CRWD), which fell -6.35%.
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Looking ahead
JOLTs Job Openings data for January will be available after the market opens on Wednesday. We will also get the weekly Crude Oil Inventories data in the morning. There is a 10y Treasury Note auction in the afternoon.
MongoDB (MDB), H&R Block (HRB), and StoneCo (STNE) are some of the earnings reports tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq made an attempt to get back above 13,000 today, but closed below the area, continuing a downtrend over the past five days.
The one-day trend line is upward and points to the same area as the trend line from the 2/10 high. That would be a +2.13% advance for Wednesday.
The five-day trend line points to a -1.94% decline.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
It was disappointing to see the intraday rally fade, but I think we should expect more of these whipsaw moves as good news and bad news emerges over the Ukraine conflict, the oil crisis, and potential Fed actions this month.
I also don't think we are at the bottom of this correction. We can expect to see 12,000 before we get a solid support area and the potential to move higher. Still, expectations are not predictions.
The expectation for tomorrow is Lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
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