Jnug to Gold "FOMC meeting helps the DCL"
Well, it has been a long very stretched out daily cycle. And it is clear now that we are dropping into the DC low. I have drawn on my chart my approximate price target for Jnug before a bounce. I think we will hit the 100 DMA. But I am using the GDXJ chart to help me a little more. Here is the GDXJ chart zoomed out a bit
And here it is zoomed in a bit.
As you can see we made a big gap today. So with that said, here are my thoughts. We may bottom from this DCL tomorrow or Wednesday. I do not think that we will get that rate hike on Wed and that should create a short lived pop in both Gold and miners. (If you are wondering what happened to Jnug when they hike rate last time, just look back at June 14th and you can see that we dropped 35% in one day). So I am expecting a pop but not 35%. As you can see from the GDXJ chart, we have the 50 DMA and the weekly 100 MA overlapping. I do not think we will bust through that level unless we were to have a surprise rate hike. So when I see GDXJ hit that level and fill that gap at $34, I will sell my JDST and buy Jnug. I am taking a chance to rebuy Jnug but I feel comfortable enough to do it especially with that gap above. I should have listened to my own advice when I said I thought we bottomed for that last DCL. I should have sold my JDST and bought Jnug. Oh well. Live and learn.
Another thing to keep in mind is that we are not making a right translated high for the year in miners. That is significant because a left translated high is bearish for the remainder of the year. That is ...unless you think that we are somehow going to have a huge unprecedented bullish move upward this late in the yearly cycle. The last missile launch from North Korea was ignored by the markets. The markets no longer fear that Kim is going to blow anything up. Trump is mostly ignoring him and is even mocking Kim by calling him "rocket man". And so gold dropped more. This is a very difficult gold market to say the least. We are essentially sideways which is the worst type of market to try to time the dips and peaks...as we just found out this last cycle. So I can only do the best I can for the time being until something either more bullish or bearish trends. This cycle is stretched so I adjusted my cycles below to match this DCL. Assuming this holds for the remainder of the year, I drew my arrows as I see it at this point, with the yearly cycle low due in late December to early February. I also forgot to mention that we have a bullish divergence on the RSI 14. SO a pop is in order.
Lastly, if there is no rate hike on Wed, then everyone is going to feel certain that there will be a hike in December. And just like before, gold will fall until that meeting. That and the pressure of the yearly cycle low being due. These two forces combined are just too powerful.
If you have any other ideas, feel free to post them as I do not claim to have all the answers.
And here it is zoomed in a bit.
As you can see we made a big gap today. So with that said, here are my thoughts. We may bottom from this DCL tomorrow or Wednesday. I do not think that we will get that rate hike on Wed and that should create a short lived pop in both Gold and miners. (If you are wondering what happened to Jnug when they hike rate last time, just look back at June 14th and you can see that we dropped 35% in one day). So I am expecting a pop but not 35%. As you can see from the GDXJ chart, we have the 50 DMA and the weekly 100 MA overlapping. I do not think we will bust through that level unless we were to have a surprise rate hike. So when I see GDXJ hit that level and fill that gap at $34, I will sell my JDST and buy Jnug. I am taking a chance to rebuy Jnug but I feel comfortable enough to do it especially with that gap above. I should have listened to my own advice when I said I thought we bottomed for that last DCL. I should have sold my JDST and bought Jnug. Oh well. Live and learn.
Another thing to keep in mind is that we are not making a right translated high for the year in miners. That is significant because a left translated high is bearish for the remainder of the year. That is ...unless you think that we are somehow going to have a huge unprecedented bullish move upward this late in the yearly cycle. The last missile launch from North Korea was ignored by the markets. The markets no longer fear that Kim is going to blow anything up. Trump is mostly ignoring him and is even mocking Kim by calling him "rocket man". And so gold dropped more. This is a very difficult gold market to say the least. We are essentially sideways which is the worst type of market to try to time the dips and peaks...as we just found out this last cycle. So I can only do the best I can for the time being until something either more bullish or bearish trends. This cycle is stretched so I adjusted my cycles below to match this DCL. Assuming this holds for the remainder of the year, I drew my arrows as I see it at this point, with the yearly cycle low due in late December to early February. I also forgot to mention that we have a bullish divergence on the RSI 14. SO a pop is in order.
Lastly, if there is no rate hike on Wed, then everyone is going to feel certain that there will be a hike in December. And just like before, gold will fall until that meeting. That and the pressure of the yearly cycle low being due. These two forces combined are just too powerful.
If you have any other ideas, feel free to post them as I do not claim to have all the answers.
ملاحظة
Update for what I think Gold is doing long term.This may be hard to see so I will try to explain what I think gold is doing. I do think that with the breakout of that wedge and longterm trendline, it is very difficult to say we are still in a bear market. So from my perspective, with a yearly cycle low due in a few months, I zoomed out a little bit to show you what I think. From an Elliot wave perspective, I think that we are in a large 3rd wave. BUT...inside of that 3rd wave, I think we have smaller 1, 2 and are now doing a second 1, 2. This type of double 1, 2 is suppose to be supper bullish, once it finally takes off. And that makes sense if you take into account that very high prices that everyone is calling for gold. That's it GL
ملاحظة
I sold my JDST today and had a buy order for jnug at $18. Just missed it. Although Jnug might drop a little more in the next day or two before a bounce back into the 20's. I am estimating that approximately mid October would be a good time to go long JDST. GLملاحظة
THE YENIt has been much more correlated to the price of gold than the dollar. Although I have the chart inverted because it helps me understand it better...You know...Yen goes up and gold goes down. If this is a cup and handle formation that will be playing out, then this is what I see. And therefore gold should tank into the end of the year or beginning of next year before starting a good rally. Japan has indicated that they will be continuing to weaken its currency. So that means the Yen should tank....or for this chart, rise.
ملاحظة
THE YEN zoomed inCheck out all of those moving averages that we closed above. This is the daily chart so I hand drew in the weekly MA to show you how all of those MA's were right on top of each other. So with that in mind, where do you think the yen and gold are going in the near term. Yen up, gold down. However, I do expect a back test in the coming week or two.
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