JUP 4H – Deviation long from lower range

JUPUSDT (Bybit) is trading near the lower end of its autumn range after a clean 4H downtrend from the 0.33–0.34 area. My 4H EMA deviation system has just printed a long signal as price extends away from the higher-timeframe averages.



Technical setup (#4h)

Price is below the 4H, 1D and 3D EMAs, with Dev% on multiple TFs showing strong downside extension (high single-digit / low double-digit % below the mean).

We’ve just tagged a new local low around 0.25–0.26 with several multi-TF exhaustion markers firing near the lower ATR band.

Overhead, the first liquidity pocket and resistance cluster sits around 0.26–0.28, with a larger supply/FVG zone and EMA confluence around 0.30–0.31.

I treat this move as a late leg of the existing selloff and a potential mean-reversion opportunity back into the 4H EMA ribbon and prior supply.

Strategy stats (this 4H deviation system)

Backtest/forward sample: 33 trades, all longs

Win rate: ~69.7% (23 wins / 10 losses)

Avg PnL per trade: ~+4.1%

Avg winning trade: ~+10.0%

Avg losing trade: ~−9.6%

Avg bars in trade: ~34 bars on #4h (≈ 5–6 days), with losers typically lasting longer than winners

The system is built to catch oversold 4H swings with a relatively high hit rate and symmetric win/loss size, so sticking to invalidation levels is crucial.



Trade plan (swing 3–7 days)

Entry: around 0.26 (current long triggered in this area).

Main target: 0.300–0.305 — previous 4H supply zone and confluence with the EMA band.

Stop / invalidation: below 0.247. A 4H close under this level would mean the current demand failed and opens the door toward deeper supports around 0.23–0.22.

This setup offers roughly 3:1 R:R from entry to the 0.30–0.305 target.

Fundamental snapshot (Jupiter)

Jupiter is the main DEX aggregator and perps venue on Solana. Over the last 30 days:

Protocol fees / revenue are roughly $78.8M / $19.0M, showing a robust on-chain business across spot + perps.

Governance approved a burn of ~130M JUP (~4% of circulating supply) from the Litterbox Trust (vote passed on 4 Nov 2025).

Token unlocks continue on a scheduled basis (e.g. ~53.47M JUP on 28 Oct 2025), keeping some overhang in the short term.

November 2025: launch of the Jupiter ICO / launchpad platform, adding another product line on top of swaps and perps.

Saros DLMM integration is aimed at deeper liquidity for JUP and ecosystem pairs.

Net read: cash-flow-positive DeFi infra with upcoming product catalysts, but short-term price still sensitive to unlocks and derivatives positioning — a good environment for volatile swings and mean-reversion trades.

Alternative scenario

If unlock / derivative selling pressure accelerates and JUP starts closing 4H candles below 0.247, I’ll consider this idea invalid and look for a new deviation long lower in the 0.23–0.22 zone rather than averaging down.

Not financial advice — this is my structured 4H EMA deviation long on JUP, combining system stats with current Jupiter fundamentals.