2 FX Shorts with excellent odds

Starting with the pair which makes no sense at current levels, considering the most meager of rate differentials at +2.5%, were it not for the SNB's deranged policy of "supporting the Swiss Franc as an inflation fighting measure" (while Swiss inflation is barely holding at 2%!) and with the Swiss Franc already at nose-bleed levels.

CHFJYP; a 50 year SHORT in the making;

The main chart is the MXNJPY - SHORT, also the premier carry-trade - while equities are trying to cling to the remnants of an already burst bubble.
While the Bank of Mexico has increased the rate differential (versus the static Yen) two-fold, in short order, that rate differential remained the same since 03/2023 while this pair continued on it's upward trajectory an additional 16%, incidentally inline with the SP500's identical increase during the same period;

Both of these pairs are at multi-year technical confluences, both pressing against significant resistance and showing distinct patterns of reversal. SHORT & SHORT

تعليق:

As for a comparison of the CHFJPY to the EUR and EURJPY prospects;

Note:
Here is a somewhat dated yet, generally still potentially informative backdrop to the SNB's policy over time:
emeritus.er.ethz.ch/...rnette_4Sept2015.pdf

تم فتح الصفقة:

Mexico's yearly inflation rate dropped for the sixth month to 4.78%, the lowest since March 2021 and the core rate also fell to the lowest since February 2022. The Bank of Mexico has no plans to alter it's elevated 11.25% lending rate in the near term.
MXNJPY;

There is an excellent SHORT Entry here!

تم فتح الصفقة:

MXNJPY

SHORT

تعليق:

تم فتح الصفقة:

If this H & S completes here, it is also likely to have long term implications!

'
Short Entry - upon a break down!

تم فتح الصفقة:

SHORT
These both - CHFJPY & MXNJPY - are rolling over, here.

تعليق:

Watch out for this, though.

تم فتح الصفقة:

MXNJPY - SHORT

An excellent second chance to go Short (or to double up) here, if not short, yet!

Here is the Big Picture view - Weekly;

تم فتح الصفقة:

MXNJPY

SHORT There is a significant Monthly reversal unfolding in this pair's PRZ!
Considering the near term prospects for a Peso rise (see related post), in conjunction with the technicalo picture here, it says a lot about the Yen's near term prospects, as well.