NANO: Potential Wave 1, post-WXYXZ
تم تحديثه
Elliot Wave:
After its Dec/Jan rally over 36$, NANO has been subject to severe correction (over 90% from its ATH), as outlined by the WXYXZ pattern in the chart above. This seems to have terminated at around the 0.786 Fibonacci mark, assuming we chart by ignoring the wick, and only consider candle bodies. This Fib mark is based on the high of primary wave 1, or intermediate wave 5 (they are the same).
You'll note that I've drawn an impulse wave for NANO to account for the missing data since its addition to Binance occurred after a major run. I got this idea from goo.gl/Xpvuho, thanks! Hence, assuming this correction wave was indeed a primary wave 2, a breakout from here could result in fairly significant upturn. However, I wouldn't enter the trade yet, as we haven't established any sort of reference for this trend, and it could just be a fake-out.
In Elliott Wave Theory, this is the most profitable trading method:
1- Watch the first impulse wave (1) and wait for a retracement. You can trade this but it's risky, and the return isn't worthwhile.
2- Once the end of wave 1 has been identified (via price action, MACD, RSI, Volume, etc), use the Fib retracement tool to determine a Wave 2 target. Here is a chart that tells you the probability of landing zones for corrective waves: twitter.com/CryptoChoe/status/968890517793726464.
3- Start laddering buys around your wave 2 target, and enjoy riding wave 3! Use the trend-based Fib extension tool to determine an exit between 1.0 and 1.618 depending on the gravity of wave 2; if wave 2 has caused significant retracement, then wave 3 will generally be stronger. Always set a stop loss (I usually stop at 10%, which is reasonable if you're not trading your whole portfolio) in case you misidentified the trend.
The above method is crucial in this instance, as I have also identified a sloped resistance, which, although not as strong as a horizontal, is still a significant cross. If you wish to follow wave 1, then I would do so after a breakout from the triangle.
Personally, I'm going to wait for wave 2, so that I can determine an exit beforehand, without having to constantly monitor for reversal indications. In any case, both fundamentally and long-term technically, NANO seems to have a lot of upside potential, especially considering the overall falling wedge post-uptrend, which is likely to continue preceding action; more details below:
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Indicators: MACD, RSI, Volume
On the MACD, it seems we are rounding off nicely, although the round-off strength has decreased overnight.
On the RSI, we have crossed upwards from below the 30 mark, a bullish sign, however, the strength of the push seems to have waned. this may be the end of intermediate wave 1.
The Volume is a little worrisome; although we are above the 20 day MA, there is not nearly as much strength as on the last X wave in the beginning of May. A break above the triangle shown above may signal more buyers in.
Zooming in to the 3-hour chart reinforces this cautionary point:
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Recap:
This trade is possible but risky, I would wait for an uptrend confirmation by breaking the sloped triangle resistance. An even better move would be to wait for a wave 2 pickup. Note that this analysis is also heavily dependent on BTC. It had a good 5% push yesterday, but we need to be weary of a bulltrap.
This isn't financial advice, just my opinion :)
Feel free to open a discussion with me below and to give some feedback. I've already learned a lot from people who messaged me on my last post. Thanks!
After its Dec/Jan rally over 36$, NANO has been subject to severe correction (over 90% from its ATH), as outlined by the WXYXZ pattern in the chart above. This seems to have terminated at around the 0.786 Fibonacci mark, assuming we chart by ignoring the wick, and only consider candle bodies. This Fib mark is based on the high of primary wave 1, or intermediate wave 5 (they are the same).
You'll note that I've drawn an impulse wave for NANO to account for the missing data since its addition to Binance occurred after a major run. I got this idea from goo.gl/Xpvuho, thanks! Hence, assuming this correction wave was indeed a primary wave 2, a breakout from here could result in fairly significant upturn. However, I wouldn't enter the trade yet, as we haven't established any sort of reference for this trend, and it could just be a fake-out.
In Elliott Wave Theory, this is the most profitable trading method:
1- Watch the first impulse wave (1) and wait for a retracement. You can trade this but it's risky, and the return isn't worthwhile.
2- Once the end of wave 1 has been identified (via price action, MACD, RSI, Volume, etc), use the Fib retracement tool to determine a Wave 2 target. Here is a chart that tells you the probability of landing zones for corrective waves: twitter.com/CryptoChoe/status/968890517793726464.
3- Start laddering buys around your wave 2 target, and enjoy riding wave 3! Use the trend-based Fib extension tool to determine an exit between 1.0 and 1.618 depending on the gravity of wave 2; if wave 2 has caused significant retracement, then wave 3 will generally be stronger. Always set a stop loss (I usually stop at 10%, which is reasonable if you're not trading your whole portfolio) in case you misidentified the trend.
The above method is crucial in this instance, as I have also identified a sloped resistance, which, although not as strong as a horizontal, is still a significant cross. If you wish to follow wave 1, then I would do so after a breakout from the triangle.
Personally, I'm going to wait for wave 2, so that I can determine an exit beforehand, without having to constantly monitor for reversal indications. In any case, both fundamentally and long-term technically, NANO seems to have a lot of upside potential, especially considering the overall falling wedge post-uptrend, which is likely to continue preceding action; more details below:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indicators: MACD, RSI, Volume
On the MACD, it seems we are rounding off nicely, although the round-off strength has decreased overnight.
On the RSI, we have crossed upwards from below the 30 mark, a bullish sign, however, the strength of the push seems to have waned. this may be the end of intermediate wave 1.
The Volume is a little worrisome; although we are above the 20 day MA, there is not nearly as much strength as on the last X wave in the beginning of May. A break above the triangle shown above may signal more buyers in.
Zooming in to the 3-hour chart reinforces this cautionary point:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Recap:
This trade is possible but risky, I would wait for an uptrend confirmation by breaking the sloped triangle resistance. An even better move would be to wait for a wave 2 pickup. Note that this analysis is also heavily dependent on BTC. It had a good 5% push yesterday, but we need to be weary of a bulltrap.
This isn't financial advice, just my opinion :)
Feel free to open a discussion with me below and to give some feedback. I've already learned a lot from people who messaged me on my last post. Thanks!
ملاحظة
Having a look at the 4-hour timeframe, it seems this NANO subwave 2 of intermediate wave 1 has correct down between the golden 0.618 and 0.5 zone. Indicators look good, better as you go down in timeframes (this is essential when trading smaller waves) and the daily chart is also still looking positive. If we break the resistance shown in the image, then we will be in a subwave 3 of intermediate wave 1, which is good news for the time being.
The way up won't be simple, there are some key resistances we need to break, and this is the first of many. It seems like NANO can break this first one, although its candles are not as bullish as IOTA's (see analysis here: tradingview.com/chart/IOTUSD/oiCy56vI-IOTA-Long-Position-Macro-Wave-2-Complete/).
It looks like most bullish alts are just mirroring BTC either way, so the resistance battle there will reveal some more information.
ملاحظة
I REALLY want to enter a NANO trade, but it just got rejected at a key resistance, and the MACD might be losing steam. I'm hoping to be wrong though!
No comment on RSI, sideways action.
ملاحظة
Critical moment for NANO. Don't get bull-trapped. Wait for a support bounce before entering, and set a stop loss somewhere inside the triangle (2-3% is acceptable depending on how close you are to the support line).
Try to split your entries on the down and upticks. Most of today's volume is on EOS, ZIL and TRX, so don't trade into one position and scare the market away.
تم حذف الأمر
Tough break for NANO.. I might try to find a different entry some other time, but for now I've lost confidence. Good thing the strategy is to wait for confirmation. An extra 1-2% gain isn't worth getting burned
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