NBCC (India) Ltd is fundamentally strong with impressive growth, high profitability, and sector leadership, but valuations are currently stretched versus recent earnings. Technical indicators are bullish, signaling potential upside. Peer comparison highlights NBCC’s strong returns and capital efficiency among real estate and construction stocks. Brokerage targets suggest moderate gains in the next 6–12 months.
***
## Fundamental Analysis
- **ROCE:** 39.22% (FY2025), consistently high and sector leading.
- **ROE:** 23.7% (FY2025), higher than most competitors (DLF 7.8%, Godrej Properties 6.3%).[5]
- **CAGR (5Y):** Revenue CAGR 14.71%, PAT CAGR 24.44%, Operating Profit CAGR 43.51% (FY21–FY25)
- **Debt:** Debt-free with strong balance sheet and high interest coverage.
- **Fair Value:** Trading 103% above EV/EBITDA model fair value; P/E is 47.2x (TTM), above historical average for the sector.
- **Market Cap:** ₹27,618 Cr.
***
## Technical Analysis
- **Current Price:** ₹102.65 as of 9 Sept, 2025.
- **Trend:** Bullish across all major moving averages and oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics).[8]
- **Key Support Levels:** ₹100 (psychological), ₹98 (recent low).
- **Resistance/Targets (Fibonacci):** ₹104.43, ₹111.95, ₹115.40, ₹124.52, ₹129.60, ₹134.33 (major pivots/post-breakout targets in chart).
- **Volatility:** Recent correction offers accumulation zone, with upward momentum building in September.
***
## Brokerage & Peer Comparison
| Company | ROCE | ROE | PE Ratio | 5Y Sales CAGR | Market Cap (₹ Cr) | Target (₹, 6M–1Y) | Sector Avg PE |
|-------------------|--------|--------|----------|---------------|-------------------|-------------------|---------------|
| NBCC (India) Ltd | 39.2% | 23.7% | 47.2x | 14.7% | 27,618 | 115–120 (consensus)[3][5] | 43.3x |
| DLF Ltd | 7.8% | 6.9% | 68.3x | 11.9% | 187,084 | 140–145 | |
| Godrej Properties | 6.3% | 5.6% | 38.1x | 8.4% | 59,107 | 1750–1800 | |
| Oberoi Realty | 13.9% | 6.4% | 28.9x | 12.4% | 59,410 | 1340–1400 | |
| Phoenix Mills | 10.2% | 8.4% | 41.5x | 11.1% | 54,265 | 2150–2200 | |
| Prestige Estates | 6.1% | 4.7% | 97.4x | 9.3% | 65,103 | 750–800 | |
- NBCC’s ROCE and ROE are **well above sector average**, signaling top operational performance.
***
## Market Share & Three-Year Outlook
- NBCC holds a significant share in government and public sector project management, specializing in redevelopment and infra construction.
- Growth is led by steady order book (~₹60,000+ Cr), executing marquee projects (government colonies, Bharat Vandana Park).
- With government infra push and NBCC’s debt-free profile, analysts expect 15–16% annual growth in topline with margin expansion.
- Prospects are positive for the next 3 years, with brokerage consensus targets of ₹115–120. Robust financials and business pipeline support steady double-digit CAGR, but valuation caution is advised for fresh entries at current levels.
***
**NBCC remains a leader in project management with strong returns, high growth, and bullish technicals, offering a solid medium-term investment outlook among peers but currently trading at a valuation premium**.
***
## Fundamental Analysis
- **ROCE:** 39.22% (FY2025), consistently high and sector leading.
- **ROE:** 23.7% (FY2025), higher than most competitors (DLF 7.8%, Godrej Properties 6.3%).[5]
- **CAGR (5Y):** Revenue CAGR 14.71%, PAT CAGR 24.44%, Operating Profit CAGR 43.51% (FY21–FY25)
- **Debt:** Debt-free with strong balance sheet and high interest coverage.
- **Fair Value:** Trading 103% above EV/EBITDA model fair value; P/E is 47.2x (TTM), above historical average for the sector.
- **Market Cap:** ₹27,618 Cr.
***
## Technical Analysis
- **Current Price:** ₹102.65 as of 9 Sept, 2025.
- **Trend:** Bullish across all major moving averages and oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics).[8]
- **Key Support Levels:** ₹100 (psychological), ₹98 (recent low).
- **Resistance/Targets (Fibonacci):** ₹104.43, ₹111.95, ₹115.40, ₹124.52, ₹129.60, ₹134.33 (major pivots/post-breakout targets in chart).
- **Volatility:** Recent correction offers accumulation zone, with upward momentum building in September.
***
## Brokerage & Peer Comparison
| Company | ROCE | ROE | PE Ratio | 5Y Sales CAGR | Market Cap (₹ Cr) | Target (₹, 6M–1Y) | Sector Avg PE |
|-------------------|--------|--------|----------|---------------|-------------------|-------------------|---------------|
| NBCC (India) Ltd | 39.2% | 23.7% | 47.2x | 14.7% | 27,618 | 115–120 (consensus)[3][5] | 43.3x |
| DLF Ltd | 7.8% | 6.9% | 68.3x | 11.9% | 187,084 | 140–145 | |
| Godrej Properties | 6.3% | 5.6% | 38.1x | 8.4% | 59,107 | 1750–1800 | |
| Oberoi Realty | 13.9% | 6.4% | 28.9x | 12.4% | 59,410 | 1340–1400 | |
| Phoenix Mills | 10.2% | 8.4% | 41.5x | 11.1% | 54,265 | 2150–2200 | |
| Prestige Estates | 6.1% | 4.7% | 97.4x | 9.3% | 65,103 | 750–800 | |
- NBCC’s ROCE and ROE are **well above sector average**, signaling top operational performance.
***
## Market Share & Three-Year Outlook
- NBCC holds a significant share in government and public sector project management, specializing in redevelopment and infra construction.
- Growth is led by steady order book (~₹60,000+ Cr), executing marquee projects (government colonies, Bharat Vandana Park).
- With government infra push and NBCC’s debt-free profile, analysts expect 15–16% annual growth in topline with margin expansion.
- Prospects are positive for the next 3 years, with brokerage consensus targets of ₹115–120. Robust financials and business pipeline support steady double-digit CAGR, but valuation caution is advised for fresh entries at current levels.
***
**NBCC remains a leader in project management with strong returns, high growth, and bullish technicals, offering a solid medium-term investment outlook among peers but currently trading at a valuation premium**.
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إخلاء المسؤولية
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