Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The End
تم تحديثه
For whatever reason, the thing about traders is they don't like to go short and they don't like to buy puts. This is primarily because of being conditioned by the market makers during bull runs and bull impulses that it's just literally lighting money on fire.
And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down, dollar cost averaging, and really get hurt.
This is especially true during that initial phase where the saying "The trend is your friend, until the end," applies.
There was a lot of enthusiasm on the social media last night and today about shorts "being made to cover" ahead of Jackson Hole, and for all criticism of this early enthusiasm aside, the logic actually isn't wrong.
Right now we retraced to a key gap, took out two lows along the way, and this is the best bounce there's been on the SPX and Nasdaq in a week.
What we did is receive, on no news, a 2.5% bounce heading into the August 25 Federal Reserve Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and issue policy that will dictate the next 12 months to the entire world.
The problem with Jackson Hole from a game theory perspective is both that it triggered a mega dump last year, while this year, especially if you've bothered to take even a cursory read of the FOMC press conference transcripts published on the Wall Street Journal's website, there's not a single reason to believe Powell is going to say anything about an oncoming or imminent pivot or change in policy.
Pivots, generally, come at the bottoms of the market, for one.
Next, inflation, in reality, is not as bad as it was before, but when Powell tells you 2% is the target is the target is the target and you're getting excited about 3.8%, keep in mind that 80% is a lot.
If you had 80% on NVDIA you'd have $300 a share. If NVDIA did a 100:1 split you'd have 30 cents a share representing an 80 percent move. This is how math works and it's why 3.8% is still really, really far away from 2.00%.
The second biggest problem the markets have is the situation with China, Xi Jinping, and the Chinese Communist Party.
Whatever the fundamental cause truly is, the economy in China is in big time, escalating trouble.
Have you looked at the Hangseng Tech Index?
It's dropped 17% in a month. Imagine if the SPX dropped 800 points in September and the noise and chaos that would cause.
And this is the world's most critical country, one of the largest economies, an economic manufacturing and spending hub, and the place that formerly had the largest population.
Everything in this world is tied to China because it is the hub and the rest of the world is the spoke. In Chinese, the country is called "Zhongguo," literally "Central Kingdom" for a reason.
What everything is portending is an upcoming very public disaster for the CCP and Xi Jinping. That disaster, however, may be Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP in the middle of the night.
Xi dumping the CCP will cause a significant Earthquake and Tsunami in the financial markets. But the after effects may actually cause what appears to be a boom, at least at first.
But whether President Xi does or does not dump the CCP, the 24-year-long organ harvesting persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, is a sin so egregious that it will simply not go unanswered.
It is a skeleton in the closet hanging over the head of very literally almost every major corporation, billionaire, and government on this entire planet.
It's something you really have to educate yourself with, and I would recommend reading the Minghui website and looking at Shen Yun Performing Arts and Shen Yun Creations to learn more as soon as possible.
So when it comes to the Nasdaq, is this a rally that you can go long on?
Have we bottomed?
What we experienced today is a no-news Monday after a raid on the low following August options expiry on Friday.
If price action revisits 15,250 you still cannot say we have bottomed.
And then the problem is, this "bottomed" can simply include a run to 16,000 or a breaker-raid to 16,500. Of course, a 5% move on indexes is well worth going long, never short, but too many equities and all the commodities do not indicate that it's really time to go long in any meaningful capacity.
The most painful scenario for BOTH bulls AND bears is this:
1. Dumping hard into October
2. Retracing it all into December
3. 2024 opens as a disaster that only DONALD TRUMP can save us from, if he manages to escape 295,999,999 years in jail for Xeeeeeeeeeting about election fraud.
I say the above to point out to you what total balderdash the prevailing narratives and brainwashing are and that you should really look at things with clear eyes.
It's only us small follower accounts who don't get promoted very often that even have the chance to tell you the Truth.
And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down, dollar cost averaging, and really get hurt.
This is especially true during that initial phase where the saying "The trend is your friend, until the end," applies.
There was a lot of enthusiasm on the social media last night and today about shorts "being made to cover" ahead of Jackson Hole, and for all criticism of this early enthusiasm aside, the logic actually isn't wrong.
Right now we retraced to a key gap, took out two lows along the way, and this is the best bounce there's been on the SPX and Nasdaq in a week.
What we did is receive, on no news, a 2.5% bounce heading into the August 25 Federal Reserve Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and issue policy that will dictate the next 12 months to the entire world.
The problem with Jackson Hole from a game theory perspective is both that it triggered a mega dump last year, while this year, especially if you've bothered to take even a cursory read of the FOMC press conference transcripts published on the Wall Street Journal's website, there's not a single reason to believe Powell is going to say anything about an oncoming or imminent pivot or change in policy.
Pivots, generally, come at the bottoms of the market, for one.
Next, inflation, in reality, is not as bad as it was before, but when Powell tells you 2% is the target is the target is the target and you're getting excited about 3.8%, keep in mind that 80% is a lot.
If you had 80% on NVDIA you'd have $300 a share. If NVDIA did a 100:1 split you'd have 30 cents a share representing an 80 percent move. This is how math works and it's why 3.8% is still really, really far away from 2.00%.
The second biggest problem the markets have is the situation with China, Xi Jinping, and the Chinese Communist Party.
Whatever the fundamental cause truly is, the economy in China is in big time, escalating trouble.
Have you looked at the Hangseng Tech Index?
It's dropped 17% in a month. Imagine if the SPX dropped 800 points in September and the noise and chaos that would cause.
And this is the world's most critical country, one of the largest economies, an economic manufacturing and spending hub, and the place that formerly had the largest population.
Everything in this world is tied to China because it is the hub and the rest of the world is the spoke. In Chinese, the country is called "Zhongguo," literally "Central Kingdom" for a reason.
What everything is portending is an upcoming very public disaster for the CCP and Xi Jinping. That disaster, however, may be Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP in the middle of the night.
Xi dumping the CCP will cause a significant Earthquake and Tsunami in the financial markets. But the after effects may actually cause what appears to be a boom, at least at first.
But whether President Xi does or does not dump the CCP, the 24-year-long organ harvesting persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, is a sin so egregious that it will simply not go unanswered.
It is a skeleton in the closet hanging over the head of very literally almost every major corporation, billionaire, and government on this entire planet.
It's something you really have to educate yourself with, and I would recommend reading the Minghui website and looking at Shen Yun Performing Arts and Shen Yun Creations to learn more as soon as possible.
So when it comes to the Nasdaq, is this a rally that you can go long on?
Have we bottomed?
What we experienced today is a no-news Monday after a raid on the low following August options expiry on Friday.
If price action revisits 15,250 you still cannot say we have bottomed.
And then the problem is, this "bottomed" can simply include a run to 16,000 or a breaker-raid to 16,500. Of course, a 5% move on indexes is well worth going long, never short, but too many equities and all the commodities do not indicate that it's really time to go long in any meaningful capacity.
The most painful scenario for BOTH bulls AND bears is this:
1. Dumping hard into October
2. Retracing it all into December
3. 2024 opens as a disaster that only DONALD TRUMP can save us from, if he manages to escape 295,999,999 years in jail for Xeeeeeeeeeting about election fraud.
I say the above to point out to you what total balderdash the prevailing narratives and brainwashing are and that you should really look at things with clear eyes.
It's only us small follower accounts who don't get promoted very often that even have the chance to tell you the Truth.
ملاحظة
We've got PMI tomorrow and Jackson Hole Friday and that's it, that's all for news drivers.Personally, it seems that 15,300 is on deck. and 14,970 might be a pretty good area to go long this morning.
ملاحظة
Is it bullish and it's a dip you can buy, or is it bearish and a bounce can be shorted?With Jackson Hole on deck tomorrow, everything is a gamble until the press conference. Expect premium burn and time wasting.
ملاحظة
No, a 650 point dump on the Nasdaq the day before Jackson Hole doesn't mean we've bottomed.But you might see 15,500 before you see 13,900 hahaha.
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