NQ1 100 MF - AT A CRITICAL LEVEL !
MONTHLY (M1)
After having reached an intra-month low @ 13'706 the Nasdaq recovered nicely to close on a monthly basis @ 14'905, slightly above the Tenkan-Sen which was in January
@ 14'841.... BUT BELOW THE 15'000 AREA, which has been mentioned in my previous analysis !
38.2% Fib ret filled @ 14'834
Indeed, a monthly and closing level above the 15'000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario calling for the FIRST STRATEGIC TARGET @ 12'894.
Intermediate monthly support level @ 13'745
LONG TERM PICTURE REMAINS BEARISH !
WEEKLY (W1)
Previous week price action triggered a DOJI pattern, which means uncertainty about further development; ongoing candle is showing, for the time being a white candle, which is :
1) Above the weekly clouds
BUT BELOW :
1) The Tenkan-Sen
2) The Kijun-Sen
3) The Mid Bollinger Band
All those 3 indicators are confirming the ongoing downward pressure, calling for lower levels !
Only a sustainable recovery above the cluster (15'180-15'240) on a weekly closing basis would neutralise the ongoing persisting downside risk.
DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's price action triggered a long white bullish candle which closed @ 14'905, roughly at the level of the ongoing secondary downtrend resistance line.
Today's price action, particularly it's closing level would be important as that could be the first warning signal of a validation or invalidation of the downtrend
line breakout !
Nevertheless, I would remain cautious, having in mind, that even if today's closing level is above 14'800, there are, above, still a couple of obstacles to breakout such
as :
1) The Mid Bollinger Band (15'112)
2) The Kijun-Sen (15'182)
which corroborate with the view expressed on the weekly picture previously mentioned.
On the downside, watch :
1) the ongoing uptrend support line (in green) which also coincides with the level of the Tenkan-Sen (@ 14'523)
A daily closing level below 14'523 would reopen the door for lower levels
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently slightly above the 4 hours clouds; recent and current price action in this time frame is showing a lack of follow through, coupled with a growing uncertainty about further
upside (small candles, small bodies !)
Watch the Tenkan-Sen (14'682) as the first significant support level in this 4 hours time frame !
A failure to hold above it on a H4 closing basis, would put the focus on the Mid Bollinger Band (14'473) ahead of the Kijun-Sen (14'398) and the H4 clouds bottom zone, currently @ 14'360)
RSI is turning down, still on a rising channel
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently above the clouds but below the Mid Bollinger Band and the Tenkan-Sen !
Watch the Kijun-Sen (@ 14'690) as the first support in this time frame.
A failure to hold above this level on H1 closing basis, would open the door for the clouds support zone (14'400-14'270)
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
After having reached an intra-month low @ 13'706 the Nasdaq recovered nicely to close on a monthly basis @ 14'905, slightly above the Tenkan-Sen which was in January
@ 14'841.... BUT BELOW THE 15'000 AREA, which has been mentioned in my previous analysis !
38.2% Fib ret filled @ 14'834
Indeed, a monthly and closing level above the 15'000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario calling for the FIRST STRATEGIC TARGET @ 12'894.
Intermediate monthly support level @ 13'745
LONG TERM PICTURE REMAINS BEARISH !
WEEKLY (W1)
Previous week price action triggered a DOJI pattern, which means uncertainty about further development; ongoing candle is showing, for the time being a white candle, which is :
1) Above the weekly clouds
BUT BELOW :
1) The Tenkan-Sen
2) The Kijun-Sen
3) The Mid Bollinger Band
All those 3 indicators are confirming the ongoing downward pressure, calling for lower levels !
Only a sustainable recovery above the cluster (15'180-15'240) on a weekly closing basis would neutralise the ongoing persisting downside risk.
DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's price action triggered a long white bullish candle which closed @ 14'905, roughly at the level of the ongoing secondary downtrend resistance line.
Today's price action, particularly it's closing level would be important as that could be the first warning signal of a validation or invalidation of the downtrend
line breakout !
Nevertheless, I would remain cautious, having in mind, that even if today's closing level is above 14'800, there are, above, still a couple of obstacles to breakout such
as :
1) The Mid Bollinger Band (15'112)
2) The Kijun-Sen (15'182)
which corroborate with the view expressed on the weekly picture previously mentioned.
On the downside, watch :
1) the ongoing uptrend support line (in green) which also coincides with the level of the Tenkan-Sen (@ 14'523)
A daily closing level below 14'523 would reopen the door for lower levels
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently slightly above the 4 hours clouds; recent and current price action in this time frame is showing a lack of follow through, coupled with a growing uncertainty about further
upside (small candles, small bodies !)
Watch the Tenkan-Sen (14'682) as the first significant support level in this 4 hours time frame !
A failure to hold above it on a H4 closing basis, would put the focus on the Mid Bollinger Band (14'473) ahead of the Kijun-Sen (14'398) and the H4 clouds bottom zone, currently @ 14'360)
RSI is turning down, still on a rising channel
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently above the clouds but below the Mid Bollinger Band and the Tenkan-Sen !
Watch the Kijun-Sen (@ 14'690) as the first support in this time frame.
A failure to hold above this level on H1 closing basis, would open the door for the clouds support zone (14'400-14'270)
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
