NZD/USD testing a key-support-zone!
Hey tradomaniacs,
I`m currently waiting for the FED to give the market more fundamental impulses.
Looking at NZD/USD we can see a secondary downtrend within a triangle which finds support at the wekly key-support-level.
Triangles are always tricky due to lots of fakeouts but also breakouts against the actual trend, which is according to the textbook, not usual since the triangle is a trend-continuation-pattern.
NZD/USD will be very tricky because we don`t know how equities are going to react to a potential tapering.
We could either see cashflow out of stocks more into bonds due to higher exepctations for rate-hikes in the future, or cashflow from value into growth and vica verse. (Other sectors would become more interesting)
If we get hawkish tones by the FED, the US-Dollar will go up against the NZD.
The frist scenario would cause risk-off and so less demand for the New Zealand Dollar. If NZD falls and USD rises, we could see a strong breakout to the downside.
The second scenario could cause a less volatile NZD/USD, but still with uncertain moves due to a strong US-Dollar.
I overall think stocks are overheated and this rally is based on liquidity that has been provided.
Let`s see! :-)
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
I`m currently waiting for the FED to give the market more fundamental impulses.
Looking at NZD/USD we can see a secondary downtrend within a triangle which finds support at the wekly key-support-level.
Triangles are always tricky due to lots of fakeouts but also breakouts against the actual trend, which is according to the textbook, not usual since the triangle is a trend-continuation-pattern.
NZD/USD will be very tricky because we don`t know how equities are going to react to a potential tapering.
We could either see cashflow out of stocks more into bonds due to higher exepctations for rate-hikes in the future, or cashflow from value into growth and vica verse. (Other sectors would become more interesting)
If we get hawkish tones by the FED, the US-Dollar will go up against the NZD.
The frist scenario would cause risk-off and so less demand for the New Zealand Dollar. If NZD falls and USD rises, we could see a strong breakout to the downside.
The second scenario could cause a less volatile NZD/USD, but still with uncertain moves due to a strong US-Dollar.
I overall think stocks are overheated and this rally is based on liquidity that has been provided.
Let`s see! :-)
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.