11/6/25 - $payc - Another one for the LEAP book

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11/6/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: PAYC
Another one for the LEAP book

- $9B business
- solid high teens low 20s ROICs
- growing HSD top line
- trades like every other HCM business
- guys we are 100% in a consumer/ business recession
- so it's expected these things are trading as such - i'm not going to take the opposite POV
- it will defn take more than a few rate cuts to correct this ship. usually what happens is the wheels fall off the magic school bus of hopium, things crash and the powers that wannabe step in to buy everyone's bags. that hasn't happened
- so what i'm doing is collecting 5-10 names rn that are great LEAP spots
- 2-1 and will collect premium as these things start to move one way or another
- this is a solid name in the HCM space, perhaps the best one to watch
- but alas, there are no great beta in a tide-go-whoa.
- keep that head screwed on, cash heavy book still looks best
- if u spot anything that makes sense LMK!
- rn I like:

1/ networks
2/ growing minimally HSD, ideally teen++
3/ solid ROICs
4/ FCF mgns in the 6%+ region
5/ no skeletons or "need a Q or two of resolution" stories

V

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ملاحظة

already got the question shortly after posting this about when i'd enter the trade...
realistically the bar is super high rn given what i think are some *excellent* alternatives (e.g. dlo per above, but also btc/ eth where i also know the assets better)
i'd set a super greedy target in the $120s (though i'll note - i'm unsure we'd get there - and if we did - v likely it's beta-related risk off and i'd probably also be comp'ing other things that i might still like more; and if it was a one-off company-related issue, who knows, like bad guide/ hiccup... maybe i'd not love it either)
- that gets me to about 7% implied FCF yield growing 10%.
- i've set the target at -15% from here to take another look
- but realistically this one is not top of watchlist is the pt.

as always lmk if u see a catalyst that i'm missing and it's worth a closer dive. i'm armcharing lot.

V