Since 2015 the Nasdaq Index has undergone approximately 25% corrections from all-time-highs every 3 years. Over this time period, the price has more or less respected the trend lines shown above. But perhaps a force more powerful than the trendline is the timeline.
The pattern repeats at roughly 39-month intervals from top to top:
May '12 - July '15 (1175 days)
pivot from 5/1/12 ATH, 12%* correction over 35 days
July '15 - October '18 (1170 days)
pivot from 7/20/15 ATH, 26% correction over 34 days
October '18 - November '21 (1148 days)
pivot from 10/1/18 ATH, 24% correction over 84 days
November '21 - February '25 (1176 days)
pivot from 11/22/21 ATH, 38%** correction over 324 days
February '25 - May '28
pivot from 2/18/25 ATH, ??% correction
If the pattern holds true, we were due a correction last week. My guess is we'll double-top December's ATH and then start the correction. How deep for how long is anyone's guess. Feels more like '21 insanity than '15 or '18 to me.
Notes:
*2012 (I believe) not yet representative of participation in the trendline pattern (still recovering from Great Recession)
**This particular correction was covid-anomolous (we were 24% above the channel already when we pivoted). This particular -38%, 324-day correction was more like 3-in-1: -22% in 97 days, -27% in 80 days, -24% in 59 days. You may get a better pattern predictor if you average the 3 moves, so -24% over 77 days. Alternatively, you can see it as two moves: an intial -22% move to bring it back within the channel, followed by a second -24% move to bring it to the bottom of the channel.
The pattern repeats at roughly 39-month intervals from top to top:
May '12 - July '15 (1175 days)
pivot from 5/1/12 ATH, 12%* correction over 35 days
July '15 - October '18 (1170 days)
pivot from 7/20/15 ATH, 26% correction over 34 days
October '18 - November '21 (1148 days)
pivot from 10/1/18 ATH, 24% correction over 84 days
November '21 - February '25 (1176 days)
pivot from 11/22/21 ATH, 38%** correction over 324 days
February '25 - May '28
pivot from 2/18/25 ATH, ??% correction
If the pattern holds true, we were due a correction last week. My guess is we'll double-top December's ATH and then start the correction. How deep for how long is anyone's guess. Feels more like '21 insanity than '15 or '18 to me.
Notes:
*2012 (I believe) not yet representative of participation in the trendline pattern (still recovering from Great Recession)
**This particular correction was covid-anomolous (we were 24% above the channel already when we pivoted). This particular -38%, 324-day correction was more like 3-in-1: -22% in 97 days, -27% in 80 days, -24% in 59 days. You may get a better pattern predictor if you average the 3 moves, so -24% over 77 days. Alternatively, you can see it as two moves: an intial -22% move to bring it back within the channel, followed by a second -24% move to bring it to the bottom of the channel.
تم فتح الصفقة
I've been scaling in to June 20 Puts since 2/21. They didn't go as low as I was hoping and I didn't grab the bottom perfectly but waddyagonnado... You don't want that bottom to grab you back. It's been a reasonable and orderly descent so far, so I've been waiting for the head-fake. Looks (pre-market) like it may be today, especially given NVDA's earning after close. I'll continue buying puts on pops. Which come to think of it is a pretty good subtitle (and a damn good band name).
أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف
I would love to say this was the enormous win it could have been if I had filtered the noise and stuck to the plan. Bought 65 QQQ 6/20/25 $470 puts @ $7.95 per, hit (end exceeded) my $405 target on 4/7 when my puts hit $65. And that's where I should have stuck to the plan and taken my profits. Instead, I got caught up in the tariff doom, and though it was going lower. Held through that big green +12% day, watched 2/3 of my gains disappear, and still I thought we're going lower. Long story short I was up $326k with a 650% gain, got greedy, ignored my plan, and eventually sold at a 75% loss. This has been a painful lesson.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.