I saw a Lance B video saying that fibonacci is garbage that people use with a confirmation bias, and it doesn't work. (He says, anything besides the 50% FIB). His thesis is that fibonacci is a phenomenum from nature and at some point traders decide to test and apply it in markets.
I disagree. Using LOG trend, during corrections, prices respect the fib level ratio. It's math, more or less. I only trade tickers, if the moves are in the correlation with whole market (index). I also think, it's practical only on corrections, bear markets. 🤔
-> When the "key" level breaks, it tests the next level. Which isn't practical due to high variance.
-> which means, you build the shorts during last resistance. Where market forces pull over. (50dma death cross as a force).
(Your hedge is the inertia from 50dma DC).
I think this is a cool, powerful setup to keep it mind. 👏
I disagree. Using LOG trend, during corrections, prices respect the fib level ratio. It's math, more or less. I only trade tickers, if the moves are in the correlation with whole market (index). I also think, it's practical only on corrections, bear markets. 🤔
-> When the "key" level breaks, it tests the next level. Which isn't practical due to high variance.
-> which means, you build the shorts during last resistance. Where market forces pull over. (50dma death cross as a force).
(Your hedge is the inertia from 50dma DC).
I think this is a cool, powerful setup to keep it mind. 👏
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to test myself, I apply this on the 2008 market.
You can see the price push trough several levels of the "ratio". Also breaking the 50% FIB?
it's probably the only indicator I would trust for shorting things?
nice setups.
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for SPX.
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2000: more awkward but still.
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2020: Have to zoom in for shorter period. Awkward as well, but markets dont need to be ideal.
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2022: this one is probably the most awkward, next to 2000. Divergence in
RSP (equal weight) from tech sectors. Signs of topping patterns in $NYFAANG. why awkward: because it bounced. Strong markets dont die easily?
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the bounce is what I call a "HOPE 🍀" period?People see strength, despite not ideal setup (death-cross). Tightening Cycle (QT), UKR War (rising
WTI prices and 
TNX).It's an interesting market dynamic to learn from.
Mega bull -> break of the trend... "Correction" -> Strong Bounce -> Lower High (..correction or beginning of a bear).
"GREED 😂" -> "FEAR🛑" (Deathcross) -> HOPE 🍀 -> 🐻
(Not sure if to sell (holding to positions)...hate to wait --> Bad risk-reward to buy. Hate losing. Hate to wait. --> FOMO, missed positions? hate to wait).
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*Fact check: All these graphs are cherry picked corrections. -> it's because you want to short large extensions that has power to fall, not minor corrections. Hence they are rare. hence "cherry picked":)When stocks EXTEND (we already had a correction in this April) + 50DMA Deathcross or peaking 200dma -> this setup is way to go.
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لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.