QQQ (17 October)

The probability skew remains to the downside over the next 1-2 wks

• ±3% envelope = $622/$587
  
• Expect mean reversion near $601
  
• Technical confluence + implied vol suggest any break of $595 confirms a run toward the lower envelope (~$586-$590)
  

±3% Envelope from Current Price ($603.93)
1. +3% ≈ $622

• Top edge of the prior uptrend channel; retests the failed breakout zone from early October ($613-$620)
  
• Strong resistance cluster; unlikely to break unless mega-cap earnings crush expectations
  

2. -3% ≈ $586.80

• Perfect alignment with the measured-move support from the head & shoulders (~$585-$590)
  
• This is the “bear completion” area where shorts often take partial profits
  

The daily chart shows QQQ trapped around its mean, with weakening upside participation - ideal environment for short-term bearish option plays (1-3 week window), but not yet a crash setup

• If you close below $600 on volume, this likely triggers momentum algos for a retest of $592
  
• If you close above $607 with breadth confirmation, you’ll get a squeeze, but probably short-lived without macro support
  

The mean line around $601-$602 is acting as the pivot for now & price keeps oscillating right around it

• You’ve got 2 failed highs in early & mid-October, that’s consistent with a rolling top
  
• The candle bodies are hugging the lower half of the volatility band rather than the upper which is a subtle shift in momentum
  
• RSI (4H view) is still under 55 with no true momentum reclaim
  
• So despite the bounce Friday, it’s technically still corrective inside an uptrend, not fresh bullish
  
• This kind of daily structure with a slow drift near the mean with room to test lower band usually plays out over 1½-2 weeks before a directional break
  
• That again points to 10 to 21d options as the sweet spot since it's enough time for confirmation, short enough to keep theta manageable