RDD stays in the wedge...Until the coming bull wick.
تم تحديثه
RDD/USD has been observing the downward wedge I posted, perfectly, and it is still contained within the wedge. I am expecting to see a "bull wick" on the wedge coming here very soon, and it will be point E on the wedge. By Bull Wick I mean it will pierce the bottom support line on the wedge, and then bounce sharply back into the wedge. After that I expect it may move a little sideways closer to the apex, and then bust out, probably with intensity.
On my previous post I was watching BTC and expected a bounce to take us upwards for at least a day, but instead it took just a few minutes. Had it taken days, my RDD/USD chart would have been nearly exactly as the first RDD/USD wedge chart I posted.
At first I thought the RDD/USD bounce was also very small. Had that been the case, the wedge would have been invalidated. At that point, I called the bottom when it hit down on point C of the wedge at 0.0061. However, I was not paying enough attention to the RDD/BTC chart. RDD/USD chose to strictly observe the wedge pattern despite the very odd unexpected BTC behavior. Hours after the drastically shortened BTC wave 4 came and went, we saw wave 4 in RDD/BTC and the D wave in RDD/USD wedge.
Wave 4 on the RDD/BTC chart shows it is exactly 50% of wave 3. Wave 4 is 13 Satoshi and Wave 3 is 26 Satoshi. This allowed us to perfectly hit the top of the wedge at point D in a quick vertical fashion. RDD/BTC wave 5 down has since been hugging the 50% retrace at 85 Satoshi pretty well, and has not extended below a 1:1 ratio for wave 1, down at 81 Satoshi.
We have since had a double bottom and double top on the wedge. Here is what I am expecting to happen going forward...
If you put RDD/BTC wave 5 in a 1:2 ratio with wave 1 then it hits down at the .786 fib at 66 Satoshi. This also puts wave C in a 1:1 ratio with wave A. It may be a sudden quick drop. So why will everyone be dumping?
BTC has been recently bouncing below a bear flag resistance line, and above a very long term support line. If you put wave 5 of its current impulse in a 1:1 ratio with wave 1 then you have BTC/USD down at 6680 USD. I am thinking maybe this hits near 05/27, but who knows maybe it comes sooner or later. 6680 USD on 05/27 has it touching a shorter term support line, the same support it touched at both low points of its current correction which has spanned all of 2018. 6680 also puts it down at the .886 Fib levels. It has very strong short term support here seen during the very last impulse upwards.
So Elliot waves are showing paths towards RDD at 66 Satoshi while BTC is at 6680 USD. That puts RDD/USD down at 0.0044 which is near its .886 fib levels, perhaps near May 27.
With BTC dipping low enough to drop RDD/USD prices below 0.006, causing the support of the wedge to break, people will start panic selling RDD. This will cause the RDD/BTC to plummet, driving RDD/USD prices drastically lower, causing the deep "bull wick." Once BTC finds support and bounces people will rush to buy back in causing it to bounce back into the wedge.
Other possibilities? Maybe BTC only forms a bull wick on the support line its been boucing off of, making it go down to 7150 at its .786 fib levels. Maybe RDD/BTC never goes lower than 81 Satoshi, keeping wave 5 in a 1:1 with wave 1. That puts RDD/USD up at 0.0057 USD. Maybe we see RDD/BTC wave 5 with a 1.272 fib ratio with wave 1. That puts RDD/BTC at the .618 fib of 77 Satoshi. With BTC at 7150 that puts RDD/USD at 0.0055, between the .618 and .786 fib retrace.
All possibilities I am seeing show a bull wick for point E, I think this is extremely possible before the correction is out.
On my previous post I was watching BTC and expected a bounce to take us upwards for at least a day, but instead it took just a few minutes. Had it taken days, my RDD/USD chart would have been nearly exactly as the first RDD/USD wedge chart I posted.
At first I thought the RDD/USD bounce was also very small. Had that been the case, the wedge would have been invalidated. At that point, I called the bottom when it hit down on point C of the wedge at 0.0061. However, I was not paying enough attention to the RDD/BTC chart. RDD/USD chose to strictly observe the wedge pattern despite the very odd unexpected BTC behavior. Hours after the drastically shortened BTC wave 4 came and went, we saw wave 4 in RDD/BTC and the D wave in RDD/USD wedge.
Wave 4 on the RDD/BTC chart shows it is exactly 50% of wave 3. Wave 4 is 13 Satoshi and Wave 3 is 26 Satoshi. This allowed us to perfectly hit the top of the wedge at point D in a quick vertical fashion. RDD/BTC wave 5 down has since been hugging the 50% retrace at 85 Satoshi pretty well, and has not extended below a 1:1 ratio for wave 1, down at 81 Satoshi.
We have since had a double bottom and double top on the wedge. Here is what I am expecting to happen going forward...
If you put RDD/BTC wave 5 in a 1:2 ratio with wave 1 then it hits down at the .786 fib at 66 Satoshi. This also puts wave C in a 1:1 ratio with wave A. It may be a sudden quick drop. So why will everyone be dumping?
BTC has been recently bouncing below a bear flag resistance line, and above a very long term support line. If you put wave 5 of its current impulse in a 1:1 ratio with wave 1 then you have BTC/USD down at 6680 USD. I am thinking maybe this hits near 05/27, but who knows maybe it comes sooner or later. 6680 USD on 05/27 has it touching a shorter term support line, the same support it touched at both low points of its current correction which has spanned all of 2018. 6680 also puts it down at the .886 Fib levels. It has very strong short term support here seen during the very last impulse upwards.
So Elliot waves are showing paths towards RDD at 66 Satoshi while BTC is at 6680 USD. That puts RDD/USD down at 0.0044 which is near its .886 fib levels, perhaps near May 27.
With BTC dipping low enough to drop RDD/USD prices below 0.006, causing the support of the wedge to break, people will start panic selling RDD. This will cause the RDD/BTC to plummet, driving RDD/USD prices drastically lower, causing the deep "bull wick." Once BTC finds support and bounces people will rush to buy back in causing it to bounce back into the wedge.
Other possibilities? Maybe BTC only forms a bull wick on the support line its been boucing off of, making it go down to 7150 at its .786 fib levels. Maybe RDD/BTC never goes lower than 81 Satoshi, keeping wave 5 in a 1:1 with wave 1. That puts RDD/USD up at 0.0057 USD. Maybe we see RDD/BTC wave 5 with a 1.272 fib ratio with wave 1. That puts RDD/BTC at the .618 fib of 77 Satoshi. With BTC at 7150 that puts RDD/USD at 0.0055, between the .618 and .786 fib retrace.
All possibilities I am seeing show a bull wick for point E, I think this is extremely possible before the correction is out.
ملاحظة
See the chart image for details on what I am thinking for RDD/BTC. You see that we have an ABC 535 zig-zag. I have detailed the Elliot wave count on the 5th wave of C and the 5 minute waves of that 5th wave. Here are the details on my primary count on the last minute wave:
wave i : 95 -> 83 = -12
wave ii: 83 -> 92 = 9 (~.786 retrace)
wave iii: 92 -> 72 = -20 (~1.618 wave i)
wave iv: 72 -> 81 = 9 (~.5 wave iii)
wave v: 81 -> 66 = -15 (~1.272 wave v)
ملاحظة
Wave ii gave us a 99% retrace, soooWave i 95 -> 83 = -12
Wave ii 83 -> 94 = 11
Wave iii 94 -> 77 = -17 ~ 1.414
Wave iv 77 -> 81 = 4 ~ .236
Wave v 81 -> 66 = -15 ~ 1.272
We have the RDD/USD apex at 5/31. According to this below chart we could see some sideways action until June 6:
That said perhaps we don’t see too much of a bull wick and it just goes into the apex at 0.0044 right at the 0.886 like Elliott waves were showing.
I have an updated count on the wedge to be posted later which takes into account the abc subwaves needed for each wave of abcde.
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