1/4/25 - $rpd - meh at $40, cap structure doesn't help
1/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
RPD
meh at $40, cap structure doesn't help
- MSD topline growth meh
- healthy GM but lacking EBITDA mgn (spending a lot for not great top line)
- decent FCF yield at 175ish FCF on 3000 EV = 5.8% or better than cash
- but given the cap structure include net debt of 500 mm - to get a yield of closer to 7% (which is starting pt for me given alternatives of either nxt close to 10% or stuff like tsm/ nvda)... you'd need to see 175 on top of 2.5 bn EV and that means 500 mm needs to come off the 2.5 bn current market cap... so that's -20% vs. today's px (=2/2.5-1)
- so while V's not "the market" i have hurdles based on opportunity costs of other owns (i don't like scattered portfolios or to milk OTM calls on stonks that aren't obvious winners to me)
- so yuh. sidelines here for now, focusing elsewhere until hits some of these levels in the picture e.g. low 30s and ideally mid 20s if/when/why. otherwise, pass, unless EPS/ catalysts change this picture
V
RPDmeh at $40, cap structure doesn't help
- MSD topline growth meh
- healthy GM but lacking EBITDA mgn (spending a lot for not great top line)
- decent FCF yield at 175ish FCF on 3000 EV = 5.8% or better than cash
- but given the cap structure include net debt of 500 mm - to get a yield of closer to 7% (which is starting pt for me given alternatives of either nxt close to 10% or stuff like tsm/ nvda)... you'd need to see 175 on top of 2.5 bn EV and that means 500 mm needs to come off the 2.5 bn current market cap... so that's -20% vs. today's px (=2/2.5-1)
- so while V's not "the market" i have hurdles based on opportunity costs of other owns (i don't like scattered portfolios or to milk OTM calls on stonks that aren't obvious winners to me)
- so yuh. sidelines here for now, focusing elsewhere until hits some of these levels in the picture e.g. low 30s and ideally mid 20s if/when/why. otherwise, pass, unless EPS/ catalysts change this picture
V
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.