AndyM

Roadmapping Crude pricing using the RTS index

MOEX:RTSI   مؤشر نظام التداول الروسي RTS
RTS is the sibling of Crude, but the reason I picked RTS for the analysis is because it shows much more vividly the details of the correction that we are in since 2008, offering a good view on the potential bounce opportunities in H2 2016 as well as on the massive decline that is still ahead.

I believe the correction in Crude and in the related indices that started in May 2008 is a zigzag, with a flat correction in its core B wave.

The flat B wave presumes a good bounce in its C wave, so we are likely to see some rock star performance in Crude in H2, which I think will be fueled to a large extent by a new wave of QE that Janet will prescribe to the ailing market this summer.

Following the bounce, the decline will continue, at a slower pace. I think the whole bear market affair will last at least till 2019, so things will be bad, but not just in one given year, but for many many years to come.
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