شراء
Ravencoin – 5 Reasons Why the Moon May Not Arrive
https://www.tradingview.com/x/C9VYs2Ue/
RVN – 5 Reasons Why the Moon May Not Arrive 🚫🌕
“Science is not about proving a thesis — it’s about trying to falsify it.”
(Karl Popper)
⚖️ In short
Ravencoin bulls see Fibonacci time zones and fractals pointing to late 2025.
But:
No adoption narrative,
Miner sell pressure,
Bearish momentum,
Weak volume,
Macro risk…
…all cast doubt on the “moon” scenario.
Sometimes, the strongest trade is accepting that price tells the real story, not the narrative.
With Ravencoin, the bullish case is easy to make: fractals, Fibonacci time zones, compression.
But good analysis also asks: what if the thesis is wrong?
Here are five serious counter-arguments against the moon scenario.
🌌 Fundamental arguments
1. No strong adoption narrative
Unlike BTC (ETF adoption) or ETH (DeFi + staking), Ravencoin currently lacks a widely embraced use case that could attract large inflows. Without a narrative, price may simply drift sideways.
2. Mining sell pressure
RVN is GPU-mined. Whenever price rises, hash rate follows, and miners sell block rewards. This creates a constant headwind that can absorb rallies and flatten parabolic attempts.
📊 Technical arguments
3. Bearish oscillators
Long-term RSI and Stochastic still point downward. That signals momentum exhaustion and suggests a final flush is more likely than immediate liftoff.
4. Lack of volume confirmation
So far, no “elephant candles” of absorption have appeared. Without volume expansion, the market has not shown real commitment to a new cycle.
5. Macro market risk
RVN doesn’t move in a vacuum. If Bitcoin dominance stays high or macro shocks hit (Fed policy, ETF flows, geopolitics), altcoins can be crushed regardless of individual fractals.
🔄 Countering the Bear Case
Every bearish argument is valid — but none is decisive.
1. No adoption narrative → Narratives often follow price. In 2021 RVN had no strong narrative either, yet it rallied x20.
2. Mining sell pressure → This has been true since 2018, and it didn’t prevent past parabolas. When demand kicks in, miner supply is easily absorbed.
3. Bearish oscillators → RSI and Stoch are lagging. They often look bearish right until the reversal. Deep oversold can be the “springboard.”
4. Lack of volume confirmation → True now, but one elephant candle can flip the picture overnight. Volume is a trigger, not a long-term forecast.
5. Macro market risk → Outliers can run even in adverse macro conditions. Plus, RVN’s Fibonacci timing lines up with the post-BTC-halving altseason of 2025–2026.
⚖️ Final takeaway:
The bear case explains today’s weakness — but not necessarily tomorrow’s breakout.
That’s why both sides of the thesis must be tested.
RVN – 5 Reasons Why the Moon May Not Arrive 🚫🌕
“Science is not about proving a thesis — it’s about trying to falsify it.”
(Karl Popper)
⚖️ In short
Ravencoin bulls see Fibonacci time zones and fractals pointing to late 2025.
But:
No adoption narrative,
Miner sell pressure,
Bearish momentum,
Weak volume,
Macro risk…
…all cast doubt on the “moon” scenario.
Sometimes, the strongest trade is accepting that price tells the real story, not the narrative.
With Ravencoin, the bullish case is easy to make: fractals, Fibonacci time zones, compression.
But good analysis also asks: what if the thesis is wrong?
Here are five serious counter-arguments against the moon scenario.
🌌 Fundamental arguments
1. No strong adoption narrative
Unlike BTC (ETF adoption) or ETH (DeFi + staking), Ravencoin currently lacks a widely embraced use case that could attract large inflows. Without a narrative, price may simply drift sideways.
2. Mining sell pressure
RVN is GPU-mined. Whenever price rises, hash rate follows, and miners sell block rewards. This creates a constant headwind that can absorb rallies and flatten parabolic attempts.
📊 Technical arguments
3. Bearish oscillators
Long-term RSI and Stochastic still point downward. That signals momentum exhaustion and suggests a final flush is more likely than immediate liftoff.
4. Lack of volume confirmation
So far, no “elephant candles” of absorption have appeared. Without volume expansion, the market has not shown real commitment to a new cycle.
5. Macro market risk
RVN doesn’t move in a vacuum. If Bitcoin dominance stays high or macro shocks hit (Fed policy, ETF flows, geopolitics), altcoins can be crushed regardless of individual fractals.
🔄 Countering the Bear Case
Every bearish argument is valid — but none is decisive.
1. No adoption narrative → Narratives often follow price. In 2021 RVN had no strong narrative either, yet it rallied x20.
2. Mining sell pressure → This has been true since 2018, and it didn’t prevent past parabolas. When demand kicks in, miner supply is easily absorbed.
3. Bearish oscillators → RSI and Stoch are lagging. They often look bearish right until the reversal. Deep oversold can be the “springboard.”
4. Lack of volume confirmation → True now, but one elephant candle can flip the picture overnight. Volume is a trigger, not a long-term forecast.
5. Macro market risk → Outliers can run even in adverse macro conditions. Plus, RVN’s Fibonacci timing lines up with the post-BTC-halving altseason of 2025–2026.
⚖️ Final takeaway:
The bear case explains today’s weakness — but not necessarily tomorrow’s breakout.
That’s why both sides of the thesis must be tested.
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منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.