Earlier today gold was, like US stock indices, continuing to trade in a relatively narrow range. But unlike the indices, it was consolidating at lower levels following a sell-off, rather than at higher levels after a rally. Despite this, gold was managing to hold above $2,300. But there was no immediate indication that momentum, as measured by the MACD, had found a bottom, let alone begun to turn up. This suggested that gold could weaken further as momentum continued to point downwards, although it wasn’t accelerating which was some good news for the bulls. Silver looked more encouraging from a bullish perspective. $26 is now significant support, and the MACD had turned up on many of the shorter-term timeframes. Yet, as with other markets, it was unclear what could trigger a significant move in either precious metal given the lack of economic data or significant market-moving events ahead of next week’s US inflation updates on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Well, that was to underestimate the potential of the weekly Unemployment Claims update. Both metals took off like a pair of rockets following the release of jobless claims. These came in significantly higher than anticipated, at 231,000 compared to the 212,000 expected. This was the highest number of jobless claims since mid-November last year, when they also rose by 231,000. The US dollar fell on the news but the moves in gold and silver were more dramatic. Two and a half hours after the release, gold was up 1% on the day and trading above $2,330. Silver rallied close to 3% having pushed above $28 per ounce to trade at levels last seen over a fortnight ago. Could today’s data be the catalyst for further gains, or have the bulls got ahead of themselves?
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