What does it mean now
1. The structure is "bullish but thin": the price is at the tops of Donchian/BB/Keltner, ADX ~33 and CMF>0 confirm the trend, but the MACD-hist −0.11, a series of bearish divergences (RSI/MFI/OBV), and a low OI (z −1.34) indicate that the momentum is going without a noticeable set of futures positions.
2. Squeeze ON ~13 bars: the market is compressed, and an impulse exit is likely.
3. Profile: a strong HVN core of 202-208 (POC ~207.9), we are trading above, VAH ~239.7 near the current price → above the supply zone.
4. Premium to VWAP ~+1.1σ: there is upward space, but it is already "not cheap" relative to average demand.
⸻
Key levels
• Resistance: 237.75 (Donch-High 20/55) → 239.66 (VAH) → 244.9–245.0 (LVN-thin zone).
• Supports: 235–231 (BB/EMA20/Don20-Mid 230.9) → 224.0–221.2 (BB-/KC-low) → 207.9 (POC) → 202–208 HVN-cluster → 197.9 (Don55-Low zone of the upper range).
⸻
Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice)
A) Basic — rotation/balance above the averages with a check of 230–232
Why basic: Squeeze ON, MACD goes out, divergences are bearish, and OI is low — more often, the market "chews" the level before choosing a direction.
• Triggers: 4h-close below 235 and/or < 230.9 (Don20-Mid) with RSI<55 / MACD weakening, without OI growth.
• Targets: 231 → 224–221 (edge of bands/channels). Deeper — retest 207–208 (POC/HVN) if the impulse fades.
• Invalidator: quick return and fixing > 237.8.
B) Pulse break-up (Squeeze-release)
• Trigger: 4h-closing > 237.8 + buffer ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +0.45$ (i.e. > 238.25) and holding above 237.8 at CMF≥0, OBV↑, preferably OI↑.
• Targets: 239.7 (VAH) → 244.9–245.0 (LVN) → with good OI, expand to higher levels.
• Invalidator: return < 235 on increased volume.
C) Bearish reversal from VAH/Don-High
• Trigger: rebound from 237.8–239.7 with 4h-close < 235, RSI↓, MACD-hist in the red, OI↑ on the red candle (inflow of shorts).
• Targets: 230.9 → 224–221 → 207–208.
• Invalidator: re-capture > 238.3 with OI not falling.
⸻
Tactics (example of logic)
• Pullback long (conservative): monitor demand in 231–232 (candle reaction + CMF≥0, OBV↑). Stop — below 224-221, targets — 235 → 237.8 → 239.7.
• Impulse long (aggressive): after 4h-close > 238.25 (breakdown with buffer), partial fixation at 239.7, trail to 244.9–245.0.
• Countertrend short: only with a clear rejection in the 237.8–239.7 zone + confirmation (RSI/MFI down, MACD-histo < 0, OI↑). Targets are 235 → 230.9 → 224–221; stop is at ~240–241.
⸻
Briefly: what to expect
• Base: consolidation/rotation in 231–238 with a risk of moving to 224–221 until momentum and OI confirm a breakout.
• If we gain a foothold above 238.25, we can expect an upward move to 239.7 → 244.9–245.0.
• If we lose 230.9, we can expect an upward move to 224–221, and if we are weak, we can expect an upward move to 207–208.
1. The structure is "bullish but thin": the price is at the tops of Donchian/BB/Keltner, ADX ~33 and CMF>0 confirm the trend, but the MACD-hist −0.11, a series of bearish divergences (RSI/MFI/OBV), and a low OI (z −1.34) indicate that the momentum is going without a noticeable set of futures positions.
2. Squeeze ON ~13 bars: the market is compressed, and an impulse exit is likely.
3. Profile: a strong HVN core of 202-208 (POC ~207.9), we are trading above, VAH ~239.7 near the current price → above the supply zone.
4. Premium to VWAP ~+1.1σ: there is upward space, but it is already "not cheap" relative to average demand.
⸻
Key levels
• Resistance: 237.75 (Donch-High 20/55) → 239.66 (VAH) → 244.9–245.0 (LVN-thin zone).
• Supports: 235–231 (BB/EMA20/Don20-Mid 230.9) → 224.0–221.2 (BB-/KC-low) → 207.9 (POC) → 202–208 HVN-cluster → 197.9 (Don55-Low zone of the upper range).
⸻
Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice)
A) Basic — rotation/balance above the averages with a check of 230–232
Why basic: Squeeze ON, MACD goes out, divergences are bearish, and OI is low — more often, the market "chews" the level before choosing a direction.
• Triggers: 4h-close below 235 and/or < 230.9 (Don20-Mid) with RSI<55 / MACD weakening, without OI growth.
• Targets: 231 → 224–221 (edge of bands/channels). Deeper — retest 207–208 (POC/HVN) if the impulse fades.
• Invalidator: quick return and fixing > 237.8.
B) Pulse break-up (Squeeze-release)
• Trigger: 4h-closing > 237.8 + buffer ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +0.45$ (i.e. > 238.25) and holding above 237.8 at CMF≥0, OBV↑, preferably OI↑.
• Targets: 239.7 (VAH) → 244.9–245.0 (LVN) → with good OI, expand to higher levels.
• Invalidator: return < 235 on increased volume.
C) Bearish reversal from VAH/Don-High
• Trigger: rebound from 237.8–239.7 with 4h-close < 235, RSI↓, MACD-hist in the red, OI↑ on the red candle (inflow of shorts).
• Targets: 230.9 → 224–221 → 207–208.
• Invalidator: re-capture > 238.3 with OI not falling.
⸻
Tactics (example of logic)
• Pullback long (conservative): monitor demand in 231–232 (candle reaction + CMF≥0, OBV↑). Stop — below 224-221, targets — 235 → 237.8 → 239.7.
• Impulse long (aggressive): after 4h-close > 238.25 (breakdown with buffer), partial fixation at 239.7, trail to 244.9–245.0.
• Countertrend short: only with a clear rejection in the 237.8–239.7 zone + confirmation (RSI/MFI down, MACD-histo < 0, OI↑). Targets are 235 → 230.9 → 224–221; stop is at ~240–241.
⸻
Briefly: what to expect
• Base: consolidation/rotation in 231–238 with a risk of moving to 224–221 until momentum and OI confirm a breakout.
• If we gain a foothold above 238.25, we can expect an upward move to 239.7 → 244.9–245.0.
• If we lose 230.9, we can expect an upward move to 224–221, and if we are weak, we can expect an upward move to 207–208.
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.