ستاندرد أند بورز 500تم تحديثه Bear Rally Bull Trap or Runaway Rocketship?
Bounced off 200DMA and of course FOMC coupled with missed ERs and Hopium drove it up up and away.
Broke above DT line but indicators show bearish divergence, price rising while Stoch RSI falls.
Trades at upper Bolly Band. as Bad news has had such a positive effect can hardly imagine what Good news might bring!
Fed sez another 75bp hike next month. Is it priced in? Anybody's guess.
NB: This post suggests no future path, only observing key signs.
Will it selloff to retest 200DMA? Or ignore logic and reason to bull higher in face of adversity? Stay tuned.
Would not chase this long.
NB: Close on 7/27 perfects harmonic cypher pattern. These usually sell, sooner than later.
And it has sold off after FOMC twice.
Broke above DT line but indicators show bearish divergence, price rising while Stoch RSI falls.
Trades at upper Bolly Band. as Bad news has had such a positive effect can hardly imagine what Good news might bring!
Fed sez another 75bp hike next month. Is it priced in? Anybody's guess.
NB: This post suggests no future path, only observing key signs.
Will it selloff to retest 200DMA? Or ignore logic and reason to bull higher in face of adversity? Stay tuned.
Would not chase this long.
NB: Close on 7/27 perfects harmonic cypher pattern. These usually sell, sooner than later.
And it has sold off after FOMC twice.
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NB: 0.5 fibo 4228. Half is the most common bear retracement, but... 0.382 just a bit overhead, eh?ملاحظة
Another amazing pump AH lol. Probly get some traction with hedges today imo.ملاحظة
Astounding. Report comes in today we have entered recession and they bull the mfr. I'm out and pissed, lol.ملاحظة
ERs suck, price rises. Fed jacks rates, price rises. Inflation surges, price rises. Now enters recession; price rises. Fuk this market!ملاحظة
2o pips to first fibo; see it fri imo.ملاحظة
Reuters:"The U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank in the spring.
The Commerce Department's advance take on second quarter GDP (USGDPA=ECI) showed a quarterly annualized contraction of 0.9% from April through June, defying analysts' expected 0.5% expansion.
The negative print arrives on the heels of the first quarter's 1.6% contraction, which would appear to suggest recession has arrived.
While two consecutive negative GDP readings is broadly seen as the standard definition of an economy in contraction, the "recession" call is officially relegated to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which uses a more nuanced formula to determine economic cycles.
"The market has been forecasting a recession," says Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. "From a textbook viewpoint, this is a recession and a mild one."
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Surprise negative growth is met with a surprise rally! Yay! Amazing, fools and their money. I spose they are betting on a shallow recession, quick recovery and inflation easing. All of which is possible.
Gas prices off from highs after a month.
I still think the Fat Lady did not yet sing.
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OPENING BEAR SHARES:200 SQQQ short 7/29 43.5c net debit 42
200 SPXS cash, no calls until August, just ride it net debit 21
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got .53c for the SQQQ calls, expiring tomorrow. see what comes!ملاحظة
Amzn, Aapl beat. Owie!ملاحظة
Well we got bearish divergence on indicators and now between indexes. Those Ers pop NAZ >1% but DJI is unmoved. All the lift is from big tech. Intel tanks AH.This certainly could get to the 0.50 fibo at 4228 next week; beyond that, seems unlikely imo.
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NB: The 0.62 fibo at 4367 is almost certainly the highest price we might see before EOY imo. Real bear markets last for 9-15 months on average. This one is six months old now and the rally is typical and expected.
High price may come in August or first week of September. in 2020 ATH was 03 September, a likely date.
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CPE worse dampening ER enthusiasm. Probly close to end of run real soon imo.تم فتح الصفقة
Closed the SQQQ covered call position for a push in early trade. Adding to SPXS now in 400. Shorted the Aug $23 calls for .51c, net credit 200 bucks to hold it.تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا
Closed out the bear shares mid-day. Melting up. Took some calls, closed all EOD. Meltup probly continue to the 0.50 Fibo at 4228, another 100 pips.Most bear rallies retrace to the 0.50 before the black swan event.
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Fooled around a bit monday. calls, puts, closed. Waiting to see if it gets higher Tues. 4140 might be a top. Lets see.ملاحظة
Twice now gaps down and bulls back up. Then it sells, BTFD, sell, BTFD. Getting weary of whipsaw. Coming ahead but not by much. Must sell soon but crowning here can produce a weekly flat structure.Opened 200 SQQQ covered writes, short Friday 43c.
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QQQ traded twice to $318 and rejected. Looks like might rollover again. Lower double top. Do not buy.ملاحظة
Another pump to dump. Near end of run imo; probly an exhaustion gap. Short light to start and add when the tanking begins.Tops are not a point; they form crowns, look at 27May > 8 June. Getting another one here imo.
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Sorry not giving lot of updates it moves fkg fast. Shorted it at 318, 319 and 320, rolled and shorted again, made a weeks pay in an hour. Trading madly. GLTA!ملاحظة
Up over 1k today think i better back off and take a break. Before I give it back, again. Holding SQQQ and SPXS. Rally will soon end IMO, we saw 4144, 4130, now 4120... series of lower highs. Crowning.ملاحظة
Hopetardium. Banked a bit more but how NQ is up 300 pips, Sand P double topping, is beyond me, yet it does it.Small drawdown in bear shares, holding on. The dump will be a nasty surprise. Could be days up here though.
Watch the puts evaporate. coulda shorted some fgs.
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Closing in on 4200. Seems like a damned magnet. Stepping away to EODملاحظة
They buy up evry tiny dip fgs. Useless to enter shorts here atm.ملاحظة
Tried many times today to see if it would reverse but no pullback and we approach powerhour. Probly gonna spike EOD...ملاحظة
Yeah here it is. Back at the breakdown point from June. Now comes the test...تم فتح الصفقة
Closed bear shares on weakness for push. Jobs tomorrow could be an excuse to bull again. Best wait, see.ملاحظة
Call options 1dte such joy. Calls I bought for 1.70 early and flipped for 2 bucks are now trading for 2.30, after QQQ price moved up +50c. This is b/c:1. Time runs out geometrically towards eod, even for tomorrow's calls;
2. You trade time value for intrinsic value as price pumps, so until it really starts to move the option doesn't appreciate much. OFC if it pops up 3 bucks you win.
I like to trade 1dte on tues & thurs, you don't pay a big premium and risk is limited to what you spend. Monthlys are really spendy, you can buy a $9 call and enjoy watching it turn into 11 or 12 bucks if you're lucky; or see how fast it gets to $4, lol.
For swing trades weeklies are best on Mondays, in a bull run they go up all week. Haven't seen much of that this year, until last week, lol. Just sayin. You can lose on these damned things so fast it ain't funny.
Plenty of times I bought $2 calls and watched in horror as they instantly became 75c or less. Sometimes the sell is so fast, the price flickers and it's over before you can open a trade order screen. Not for faint of heart!
If you are bearish, see a bear pattern or just think 'it's coming down' you can bet in the dailies cheap and limit loss if you're wrong. When it moves they pop in a hurry.
Yesterday early am i loaded up 20 0dte puts and went for coffee. Watching the price change slightly favorable, and suddenly they show +$1200, it was instant, intraday gap; ofc I closed quick as can but it takes 10s to open a trade order and send it, got
1K by then, lol. These move so gdmd fast it aint funny.Calls can pop too but usually it's a painful slow grind and u sit biting nails waiting for the lift. If it takes too long, return to 1. above and see how you can lose when you win, lol.
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Opening 6 SPY 8/05 415C $1.48 AH net debit 900 bucks. See if it gaps up on nonfarm.ملاحظة
Well we got a different kinda gap, looks like the rally is done. Sorry if you followed this trade, we know this is risky biz.ملاحظة
Bought 411c, flipped, closed all cut loss in half. More to follow. Look for a partial gapfill, not shorting it here.ملاحظة
Flipped a few more qqq, spy calls. could get a gapfill or might just chop for awhile. Since we are clearly not in a recession, a global financial crisis event seems less likely imo. A massive selloff is certainly possible this Fall but more likely seems rangebound trading, with sell back to support, rally, sell back, enter a channel. IDK just a possibility, eh? Wouldn't bet on a massive decline just yet.
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LOL toldya not to short it. Made a bit more on spy 412, 413c. See if it fills, NQ holds it back.ملاحظة
SPX closed the gap. Flipped 414c. Those 415c recovered to .75c from open at .22, a 300% gain had we bought more fgs.تم فتح الصفقة
opening short qqq net debit $5:-10 Aug-05-22 $321 Puts
+10 Aug22 $321 Puts
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Added dailies then closed it all, nice gains on shortz. Back in cash, flush.ملاحظة
Holding 300 bear shares spxs 200 sqqq but closed all the puts on this flush, see if it rallies a bit.تم فتح الصفقة
Looking at DJI -50, RUT +4, DJT +3, this is not super bearish. Closing SQQQ for 100 bucks to better. Ill keep 300 SPXS and see if we get a flush.
TBVH this could turn when reaction to the report passes. In about a day...
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Back at the opening prices. Closed it all, all in cash. Sleep all weekend no worries!ملاحظة
IMO there may be another BTFD move before it really rolls over. Looking for a triple crown, need a lower right shoulder. News reactions typically last a day or two at most. Then they forget.CPI will be LESS HOT imo, gas is down to $4, a 20% decline in price! Could be a bullish surprise on 10 August imo.
Here's the CPI schedule:
Aug. 10, 2022 08:30 AM
August 2022
Sep. 13, 2022 08:30 AM
September 2022
Oct. 13, 2022 08:30 AM
October 2022
Nov. 10, 2022 08:30 AM
November 2022
Dec. 13, 2022 08:30 AM
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LMFAO Look what the morons did! Went shopping + lunch come back and LOL@Chuckleheads... yeah get a right shoulder...ملاحظة
I think it may have topped in AM trade. Getting shorts.ملاحظة
Looks like it capped at 4184, I thought sure it would get over 4200. Confirm tomorrow; shorting lightly.تم فتح الصفقة
Yeah so looking bearish again. DO NOT be surprised if CPI is a pleasant improvement to see this MFR jump like Hell. Would not get full bore short until we see the numbers AND the reaction. You know how the damned thing will behave unpredictably to these CPI reports. Bad news that's less bad might be an excuse to bull. Good news that's less good than hoped would be an excuse to sell again.
No way to properly anticipate this until you see the elephant.
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Gonna wait to EOD see if this gap fills. Got a bit playing both ways today. Really expected the gap to fill early; that it did not is bearish, suggests the bull run is over imo. Pretty confident we topped Monday PM. Will know after we see the reaction to CPI + PPI, EOW.ملاحظة
FYI:Wednesday, August 10, 2022 08:30 AM
Consumer Price Index for July 2022
Wednesday, August 10, 2022 08:30 AM
Real Earnings for July 2022
Thursday, August 11, 2022 08:30 AM
Producer Price Index for July 2022
Friday, August 12, 2022 08:30 AM
U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2022
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ALL BETS OFF STOPPED OUT ALL POSITIONS! CPI CAN BE COOLER THAN EXPECTED FOR JULY>>> NO SHORTZ!!! MONSTER RALLY POSSIBLE!!!L@K GAS $4 -20% in July...!! HOLDING CASH ONLY
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Told ya! FGS gone gaga!ملاحظة
Amazing Hopium. Scalped some puts on open. Do not chase calls imo.ملاحظة
No position. Scalped and closed. Nuts. Can go higher before gap fills.ملاحظة
Aye, as noted. Not filling this today IMO. OFC can always surprise, lolتم فتح الصفقة
Reached the 1.618 extension at 4247 and pushed back. See if we get another run at it. Flipped a few puts.ملاحظة
NQ closed the AM gap today but DJI remained above yesterday close, holding SPX above as well. Could come down EOD.ملاحظة
Gap didnt fill in an hour, probly be EOD. Looks like it wants to test 4247 top. Be shorting there eh?ملاحظة
Bot 200 SPXSتم فتح الصفقة
Opened ten qqq Aug 330p short monday 326 net debit $3.30تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا
Closed AH push. Meltup can gap monday see what we get.
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