Possible harmonic bat forming - pointing to downtrend
Hi traders,
Everybody's looking at the S&P500 curve in anxiety these days. Will it go look for a V shaped recovery or will it go for an alltime low? When looking at all the technical analysis which is being done everybody seems to be in favour of the latter. Personally I also think this'll be the case, but the markets have not been going in a logical direction lately (due to QE measures since sept 2019 and the artificial boosting of the markets, they're ignoring the grimmer looking economic numbers of the last months). In my opinion we're seeing a huge bubble (even worse than the dot com bubble in 2000 and the credit bubble in 2008). If there's a name I'd had to put on it it would be a global stock market bubble, fueled by the stimulus from the national banks.
I've been a strong believer of the theory that the economy would go into a recession in 2020, we just needed to wait for a black swan like covid19. I've also been following MPC for quite a while, and based on his track records of technical analysis I tend to believe in his hypothesis.(all creedits to him - linked below)
I believe the end is not yet near.
So, summarized...
1. fibonacci numbers indicate that we're at a 0.5 level since the previous low from the corona crash.
2. I've been playing around with harmonic patterns and when you plot them on the S&P500 chart the D-level is actually right where the 0.5 fibonacci level is.
3. History says that the lows in bear markets are mostly found after longer periods. The low which was formed in march is not the bottom...
Do If I'd need to bet on a horse, it'd be the one going downhill...
*No trading advice, just personal analysis*
Everybody's looking at the S&P500 curve in anxiety these days. Will it go look for a V shaped recovery or will it go for an alltime low? When looking at all the technical analysis which is being done everybody seems to be in favour of the latter. Personally I also think this'll be the case, but the markets have not been going in a logical direction lately (due to QE measures since sept 2019 and the artificial boosting of the markets, they're ignoring the grimmer looking economic numbers of the last months). In my opinion we're seeing a huge bubble (even worse than the dot com bubble in 2000 and the credit bubble in 2008). If there's a name I'd had to put on it it would be a global stock market bubble, fueled by the stimulus from the national banks.
I've been a strong believer of the theory that the economy would go into a recession in 2020, we just needed to wait for a black swan like covid19. I've also been following MPC for quite a while, and based on his track records of technical analysis I tend to believe in his hypothesis.(all creedits to him - linked below)
I believe the end is not yet near.
So, summarized...
1. fibonacci numbers indicate that we're at a 0.5 level since the previous low from the corona crash.
2. I've been playing around with harmonic patterns and when you plot them on the S&P500 chart the D-level is actually right where the 0.5 fibonacci level is.
3. History says that the lows in bear markets are mostly found after longer periods. The low which was formed in march is not the bottom...
Do If I'd need to bet on a horse, it'd be the one going downhill...
*No trading advice, just personal analysis*
تعليق:
Link to MPC's analysis: www.tradingview.com/...st-is-Still-To-Come/