The S&P 500 holds near 6,435, but the backdrop is shifting. Fed tone, liquidity, and sentiment are no longer aligned, leaving SPX caught between support and resistance.
1. Fed Model (AFDFM)
Index = –2.78 → weak hawkish bias.
Policy regime = easing, but signal shows a falling trend.
Probabilities: Hold = 60%, Cut = 40%, Hike = 0%.
Inflation easing (Core PCE 0.34%), unemployment stable (4.2%), but Fed Funds still elevated at 4.33%. Policy remains restrictive compared to the Taylor Rule (~1.8%).
2. Liquidity (BML)
Net liquidity variation = –2.14% → negative.
TGA high + RRP large = drain on market cash.
Until liquidity turns up, upside momentum in equities stays capped.
3. Macro Risk Sentiment
Risk On/Off index slipped back below 0 (–0.45).
Summer highs near +1.5 showed strong appetite, but enthusiasm is fading.
Without liquidity improvement, sentiment is unlikely to push higher.
4. SPX Levels
Support: 6,350 → a break below risks 6,200.
Resistance: 6,500–6,550 → needs liquidity improvement to sustain.
Conclusion:
Fed tone = dovish to neutral, but liquidity = negative. That divergence is why SPX is stuck near the highs. A liquidity flip (TGA drawdown, RRP decline) is the trigger for the next breakout. Until then, expect range trading between 6,350 and 6,500.
Disclaimer: This is educational analysis, not financial advice.
1. Fed Model (AFDFM)
Index = –2.78 → weak hawkish bias.
Policy regime = easing, but signal shows a falling trend.
Probabilities: Hold = 60%, Cut = 40%, Hike = 0%.
Inflation easing (Core PCE 0.34%), unemployment stable (4.2%), but Fed Funds still elevated at 4.33%. Policy remains restrictive compared to the Taylor Rule (~1.8%).
2. Liquidity (BML)
Net liquidity variation = –2.14% → negative.
TGA high + RRP large = drain on market cash.
Until liquidity turns up, upside momentum in equities stays capped.
3. Macro Risk Sentiment
Risk On/Off index slipped back below 0 (–0.45).
Summer highs near +1.5 showed strong appetite, but enthusiasm is fading.
Without liquidity improvement, sentiment is unlikely to push higher.
4. SPX Levels
Support: 6,350 → a break below risks 6,200.
Resistance: 6,500–6,550 → needs liquidity improvement to sustain.
Conclusion:
Fed tone = dovish to neutral, but liquidity = negative. That divergence is why SPX is stuck near the highs. A liquidity flip (TGA drawdown, RRP decline) is the trigger for the next breakout. Until then, expect range trading between 6,350 and 6,500.
Disclaimer: This is educational analysis, not financial advice.
TheRealMongoose
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TheRealMongoose
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.