SPX: Is it a BUY now? Only if it does this.

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Hello traders and investors! The index hit the 4,456 today again, and as we have been saying, this is the most important resistance to defeat. As long as it stays under this point, it won’t be bullish for real. Let’s see what’s going on here.

In the 1h chart, the index is in a bear trend, and the only thing that could make it reverse is the breakout of the 4,456, in my view. If we do, probably the index will fill the gap at 4,481, and seek the next resistance at 4,521.

If it doesn’t react quickly, it’ll just keep dropping, probably to the 4,400 again, or even lower. Let’s look for more clues in the daily chart:



The index just hit its 50% retracement, and it is doing a good reaction. Yesterday, we had a classic Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, which is great, but we still must break the 4,456. Keep in mind that the 4,456 is at the same time the 38.2% retracement and it is near the 21 ema in the daily chart, making it the most important resistance level in multiple time frames.

The 4,400 is at the same time the 50% retracement and the previous top on March, and if the index loses this point, the 61.8% retracement would be our next stop (4,345).

Since the SPX is still inside our “danger zone”, my neutral view didn’t change, and I will only believe in a bullish reaction if we break the 4,456, or in a bearish reaction if we lose the 4,400. I prefer to see a bullish reaction, because the Risk/Reward ratio favors the bulls (the upside potential is higher than the downside potential).

Since I do daily analysis on the SPX, I’ll keep you guys updated on this every day, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my future analyses.

Have a great Holiday/Weekend.