SPX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022

SPX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022

We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.47%, decreasing from 7.49% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 85th percentile according to ATR and 100th according to VIX
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 6.23%
BULLISH Candle : 5.1%


With this in mind we can expect with a close to 15.7% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 3610
TOP: 4200


Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
80% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 3900(already happened yesterday)
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 3492