What to expect leading up to this months OPEX.
تم تحديثه
Every 3rd Friday of the calendar month is OPEX (Option Expiration).
The difference during the most recent OPEX cycle was:
------- Kai Volatility ------
Kai Volatility refers what happened as a Second Move Phenomenon. read about it here
Karsan: This is an effect of Oct Ivol being hi relative to everything behind it due to unbalanced dealer positioning. This makes it hard for market to decline w/any speed this week &’ll cause some combination of 3 effects:lower skew,lower IVol, & higher prices. The< of 1 the > of others.
Q: Will that effect wear off with Vanna & Charm leaving next week (OCT11-15) though?
Karsan: Yes. But the question remains, will we have fixed the technical damage and squeezed enough to support longer term flows by the time next week is here.
-------------------------------
I reproduced this VIX I found on fintwit (full cred to stockcharts) chart from to help illustrate this healing process.
I'm watching the levels
4430 - 3 month point of control on volume profile
4365 - gamma flip line via @SpotGamma
4300-4400 - range of sept bear month.
I highlighted some key closing points that have identical VIX structure and direction that would indicate a gap up Monday.
Not Financial Advice. Only My Observations.
The difference during the most recent OPEX cycle was:
- Excessive Front Running OPEX DIP
- Evergrande / Contagion
- Debt Ceiling Crisis
- China / Taiwan Tensions
- Inflation / Hyperinflation
------- Kai Volatility ------
Kai Volatility refers what happened as a Second Move Phenomenon. read about it here
Karsan: This is an effect of Oct Ivol being hi relative to everything behind it due to unbalanced dealer positioning. This makes it hard for market to decline w/any speed this week &’ll cause some combination of 3 effects:lower skew,lower IVol, & higher prices. The< of 1 the > of others.
Q: Will that effect wear off with Vanna & Charm leaving next week (OCT11-15) though?
Karsan: Yes. But the question remains, will we have fixed the technical damage and squeezed enough to support longer term flows by the time next week is here.
-------------------------------
I reproduced this VIX I found on fintwit (full cred to stockcharts) chart from to help illustrate this healing process.
I'm watching the levels
4430 - 3 month point of control on volume profile
4365 - gamma flip line via @SpotGamma
4300-4400 - range of sept bear month.
I highlighted some key closing points that have identical VIX structure and direction that would indicate a gap up Monday.
Not Financial Advice. Only My Observations.
ملاحظة
wouldn't have been fun without a few twists.
منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.