ستاندرد أند بورز 500تم تحديثه SPX Has a very clear 1-2 1-2 nest set down How far WC or W3?
Either Corrective, and we must not pass the Red line. Or Impulsive and we pass the Red line for much greater pullback/correction ! Red line is the key here, only time and wave strucutre will tell us how far we go down. Watch your long position at least for the short time just in case this is go down below Red line
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Daily view...ملاحظة
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Some breadth indicators are suggesting this !!!ملاحظة
Look up for further details ! If and if i am right !ملاحظة
We have 5 waves down completed !ملاحظة
Moving average 5 Days, not whole allot of buying the "Dips" here !!!ملاحظة
CNN Fear & Greed index:As low as 10.22.2022
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If you are bearish & only if you are ! Macro count for ABC or WXY !ملاحظة
f you are bearish & only if you are ! Macro count for ABCDE Triangle then up !ملاحظة
Goofing around and counting, 5 minutes chart, all the simple impulsive 5 waves !ملاحظة
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2 Rejections here on 1H chart:1/ October's of 2022 low (Green line) !
2/ Down Blue channel !
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4199 Is the # to watch !ملاحظة
# 1 : ESi futures, suggesting an ending diagonal here ! We could/might have our trough in already. ملاحظة
Zoon in for a probable final W5ملاحظة
#2 : ESi futures, this last move up does not look like an impulsive move . Could be a leading diagonal of some sort !? If so we have not seen a big drop as usual after it.ملاحظة
Back to our regular session SPX :1/Expanding leading Diagonal ! ( if you are bullish)
2/ WXY Corrective then down. (Bearish)
3/WXYZ Corrective then down. (Bearish)
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Updating our break down. Could/might be a "Bear's trap" either way we are back inside our Blue channel +Above October's low Green line. !
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Everything we did here and on X implies a "Trough" is in place. Me not understanding this last move as of yesterday is the only thing standing in my way to confirm such a thing. Other than that everything suggest a bottom has been reached ! Or i could be wrong and south we go, never now.!ملاحظة
Probable L.Diagonal of some sort if you believe a trough is in already!? = We will revisit the W1 region today/tomorrow !ملاحظة
Daily, just chilling on both major trend lines ! ملاحظة
Before up, after here down !ملاحظة
If you are bullish then this could be something like this !ملاحظة
If you are bearish then we have one more leg down ! Wish WXYZ in place as a corrective counter trend move !ملاحظة
If we are going up for W3 then we have completed ABC for W2 as such.ملاحظة
If you believe we still got one more leg down then it should not pass Red box !ملاحظة
Not good !ملاحظة
Final leg for bears if they want to push this further south !ملاحظة
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PC is implying a trough has been placed in already !ملاحظة
If i may add, or with in 1-5 Days !ملاحظة
Time wise :1/ Our last bullish move can not be related to this prior last move down 37 bars vs 32 bars.
2/ Might/could be related to a bigger count from last leg down.
3/ Or this is the beginning of bullish move !
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IF you still believe we have more leg down then this last 32 bars are more probably related to "Chart"32 bars VS 37 bars time wise: NO
81 bars VS 32 bars time wise: Probable
- if you are bullish then this last 32 bars are the "Beginning " of a new bullish move.
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5 Waves for the bears !ملاحظة
Pullback is needed ! Red box !ملاحظة
A textbook ABC Corrective counter trend move has finished ( If you are bullish).We gave 2 scenarios for an ABC or 5 waves down impulsive down. After such corrective move look for a probable new ATH !
- If you believe that we are crashing and the is the beginning, then this is parably still wave 3 for you and we would go down. You will need a catalyst for that and more trading days to form a bigger corrective move to support your bearish scenario in the coming days/weeks. !
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IF you believe that we have bottomed already, this was an ABC counter trend corrective move, then 5th wave is incoming by the end of 2023 as such. !ملاحظة
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For the bearish case out there, look up for further details ! 9th +10th up dates have 2 bearish scenarios which should be followed closely !
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ESI has invalidated Impulsive up !ملاحظة
ABC has completed, 3 waves down !!! We could have Impulsive down in Blue NOT good for bulls !!!ملاحظة
Back to our regular session. We have mentioned Red box ( Look Above) for wave 4 of an impulsive up, well ESi has invalidated that if we do the same here Red line not good for bulls as well. We shall see by the end of today's trading session !ملاحظة
what if this is an ABC (Since ESi invalidated impulsive up):A= Diagonal
B= Flat
C= Impulsive
* We must break below Red line 4268.50 + have a motive wave structure (We need more time to develop such structure)
* We have 2ed +3ed options as WXY & WXYZ, then this would be our 4th ABC which i have not mentioned due to the complexity of the previous waves!
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if this is the case we wont go that far, tgt is Red box ! And i do not like it because on smaller time frames we have nailed our 5th wave down ! Unless this is an impulsive going down and we will go much further down ( Look above for a triangle + WXY Macro counts)ملاحظة
For Example buddy. Look at AAPL'S today count ! How can yo count this (Which is going to, with high probability, determine the next move for SPX ) !ملاحظة
Entering W4, Red box ( check prior ideas).!ملاحظة
Few points from invalidation of our impulsive up, stay close to your trades here guys.!ملاحظة
More impulsive here than corrective, we shall see by end of day. ! Stay nimble guys.!ملاحظة
Ending diagoanl for wave 5. Or not and i am simply wrong on this big time as we might have a trough in place already .!ملاحظة
Invalidation here .!ملاحظة
Favoring an impulsive move up !ملاحظة
How on GOD'S Earth, can someone count this as corrective ABC (Red circle) !!!ملاحظة
Not even one minutes chart could be counted as an ABC corrective !!!ملاحظة
If you count is as a WXY double Ziggy, then the rule of alternation is not happening here since wave 2 was flat !!!Flat for Wave 2 !!!
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Looking for a top today.!ملاحظة
Estimated time of arrival of wave 5 is between 10:50 & 11:45. !Then wave 2 down 4200ish .!
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Arriving to our tgt a bit early ;-)ملاحظة
Next is 1.62 W5 to W1. !ملاحظة
Re-adjusting W2 retracements due to the fact that we kind off overextended our 5th wave here.ملاحظة
Waves 3 & 5 are kind off equal in % gain.!ملاحظة
We should see sharp move down for wave C or 3 of Aملاحظة
If this is W2, then we should pass 1.15% .! Bigger count should be bigger in pullbacks than smaller count.!ملاحظة
The least thing bears should do is having a bigger pullback :-) this is very shallow for W2. During our w2 +w4 pullbacks we went south a bit deeper. !ملاحظة
What if we still have another higher high and we just finished wave 3, pulling back in wave 4 right now then final wave 5 to complete five impulsive up. !ملاحظة
ETA, is 2:45 PM where Time equality 5=1 @ 4397 where % equality 5=1.!ملاحظة
ES1 this morning is just 70 points from the Golden Ratio.!ملاحظة
ES, Achieved .76 extension.!ملاحظة
ES'S Move this morning.!ملاحظة
Looks like a flat here.!ملاحظة
This move in circle is just one straight line !!!! The look is Flat but no way to count 5 waves down.!!!!ملاحظة
We have not, if this is 5 impulsive up, reached 61% retracements for wave 2 then 3 up.!ملاحظة
Probable .!ملاحظة
If you are bullish, this is your path.!Some Elliottions are suggesting we are in a "Bearish" market and this is just a counter trend move then we go down.! We shall see.!
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Only Flat if we have an Ending Diagonal.!ملاحظة
More complex waves here.!ملاحظة
1-2-3-4-5 Waves Vs ABC.!ملاحظة
If you are bullish this is your "Touch down" for wave 4 of 5.!ملاحظة
5th of 5th is up next , if yo are bullish here.!ملاحظة
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For the bullish case we are probably somewhere in here, w1 of of w3 of W5.!ملاحظة
Challenging to say the least.!ملاحظة
Truncation + Deep pullback.!?ملاحظة
Using daily & disregarding our mini counts 5m,15ms.... And being Bullish this is your target.! So many bearish counts out there ABCs.!ملاحظة
It seems that we have a 5 waves impulsive up with one big wave 4 (Deep retracements >61%)ملاحظة
ES1, Still under October 12th's high ??!!ملاحظة
So what is next for SPX ? Scenarios:
#1: We have completed 5 waves up going for W2 down.!
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#2: We have completed 5 waves up October 10th, wave 2 was a Flat and we have finished wave 1 of wave 3 up.!ملاحظة
#3: ES1 is still in a corrective move !!! Could be a flash warning for a potential break down .!?
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I do more in depth studies of stocks on my twitter account. Hope you would enjoy it there as you are enjoying it here.
****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***
twitter.com/samitrading1
****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***
twitter.com/samitrading1
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.