SPX SHORT TO UPTRENDLINES THEN REASSESS
تم تحديثه
FIBONACCI TARGET WAS 3200. PRICE HAS HIT 3196ISH. LOOK FOR A PULLBACK TO UPTRENDLINES, THEN REASSESS THERE.
ملاحظة
Inner Uptrendline is breached; market should move to outer uptrendline.ملاحظة
Price moved to outer uptrendline, forming the right side of the neck of a potential bearish head and shoulders. Price will likely move back up to the 3200/3340 price level, then fall below 3100. Initial target is @ 2900.ملاحظة
Correction: Initial target below 3100 is 3000. Then 2800. Price is at major support currently @ 3115. Potential for small bounce up here. If market continues to be super weak, it will break 3100 without a bounce.ملاحظة
Well, that was an overachiever! Upside resistance = 3100 and 3200. next downside target is 2750, either nearterm or intermediate term. if price heads back down in the nearterm, then 2750 should act as strong support.ملاحظة
3133 hit with sharp downside on Fed rate cut surprise. 3000 is still holding, so nearterm direction is unclear.ملاحظة
Barring another nearterm shock, price is likely to move higher, to around 3250-3300 area over the next couple of weeks.ملاحظة
The shocks keep coming, with more cases of COVID-19 across the globe, and OPEC not coming to a deal to cut production and stabilize oil prices. The move up to 3133 touched the backside of the broken outer uptrendline, but was unable to continue higher as more bad news poured in. Price dropped back down to major support around 3000 and tried to hold there, but is ending the week below, around 2950. This is still a level of major support, so the markets have a chance to bounce higher here.If not, then the next downside targets are 2750, 2625 and 2525. If markets stop at 2750 there is a possibility for a sharp bounce up. If price breaks below, there could be a pause @ 2625. If that is surpassed and price heads down to 2525, look for consolidation and a move back up, unless catastrophic events continue to worsen. In any case, all of these support levels, once broken, now become resistance.
ملاحظة
Monday US Open sits at/near the 2750 level on the S&P. Circuit breakers have triggered, so the market closed for 15 minutes. If 2750 is broken and closed significantly below, 2750 might be re-tested, then more downside to 2625.ملاحظة
2750 was the level where the market closed on Monday. A sharp bounce up on Tuesday, but late US morning price is struggling to stay higher. 2850 area was achieved, but past support now future resistance is challenging price to be able to move higher. More downside is the bias; how high the market can get before turning down is the question. 2850 might be it; if not, then 2950 is the next level.ملاحظة
The market is behaving (knock on wood) very orderly.ملاحظة
The S&P closed at 2882. Next level of resistance is 2900-2950.ملاحظة
The S&P formed a bullish candle Tuesday. There is a potential for some upside, possibly around 3000.ملاحظة
Price is consolidating between nearterm monthly and weekly support and resistance levels. Next direction is not clear until 2750 is broken or 2850 is broken.ملاحظة
Strong break of 2750; next level of significant support is 2625.ملاحظة
Bear Trap Headfake? Market closed at 2750 again, with Trump making a speech tonight regarding steps being taken for coronavirus.ملاحظة
NOPE, not a bear trap. next stop is 2018 low @ 2350 which also aligns with the uptrendline from the 2009 low. This will be a crucial level that should provide a bounce back up to 2750, which is now resistance.ملاحظة
If we are going further down, the S&P will break below the 2350 level, potentially as low as 2100 area, before bouncing back up.ملاحظة
S&P hit the target given on March 12th, or close to it--2350. The decade-long uptrendline is holding for now. There is likely to be a bounce up, to near 2700-2750.More downside from there. Next target is @ 2100.
ملاحظة
There IS a chance that price could simply move down to 2100 before going higher, as 2100 aligns with the 1.27 fib extension, which often acts as support if the previous retracement is shallow. If that happens, the retracement could go higher than 2750.ملاحظة
Possible consolidation here @ 2300/2400 range, then one more down move to the 2000 area before a pullback to around 2700 and possibly as high as 3000.ملاحظة
CONSOLIDATION IS HAPPENING AT THE 2300-2400 LEVEL. FRIDAY (TODAY) CLOSED ON OR NEAR THE LOW, SO MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A DOWN DAY, AND POSSIBLY IN TO TUESDAY, TO THE 2100-2200 AREA. THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO TURN UP THERE. COULD BE A SHARP BOUNCE, OR COULD CONSOLIDATE THEN MOVE HIGHER, JUST DEPENDS ON THE MARKET SENTIMENT AT THE TIME. A WEEK OR MORE MOVE TO THE UPSIDE, TO THE 2700 AREA. IF PRICE BREAKS THROUGH 2700, THEN AS HIGH AS 3000, BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS A MOVE BACK DOWN, TO 1600-1700 LEVEL, AND LIKELY AS LOW AS 1200. THIS MOVE DOWN COULD BE AS FAST IF NOT FASTER THAN THE ORIGINAL MOVE DOWN FROM THE ALLTIME HIGH.ملاحظة
Still looking for 2100 support for a retrace up to the 2750 or 2900-3000 level. Possibly starting Tuesday.ملاحظة
Countertrend rally should continue to the 2725 level. From there, the market is likely to drop fast and long, to at least 1700/1600.ملاحظة
Countertrend rally to 2725, but could go as high as 2950/3000. Wait for a confirmed trendline break and reversal to the downside.
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