SPX LT View Feb 2018

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Interesting juncture

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So the potential lows are in 2450/2470 levels which is close to the August 2017 bottom from where the blow off began

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US GDP growth most likely slows down at latest 2Q18 for at least 2H, with tightening this should lead to 15/20% decline.

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So far SPX is normalising to trend, essentially washing out the post Sep 2017 blow off

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So market is truly sniffing out the slowdown in global growth with the US the last economy to slow down at latest 2Q18. Coupled with QT, one should have 2015/2016 outcome similar

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Or 2011 similar as long as we continue on current path which is QT+ growth slowdown. US has a chance via another USD devaluation into summer but lets see. Interesting what Draghi will do as EU stocks should more or less go 15/20% down under this scenario.

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Short term risk aversion rose sharply

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Working very well so far as paradoxically bullish positioning declines!!

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Seems C&H forms on futures

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Becomes more and more like 2015/2016