'Black Swan' Pattern: Are we seeing failed fifth on 1 hour SPX?
When we have a 5 wave advance in Elliot wave that fails to make a new high this is referred to as a "Failed fifth". It's a very rare pattern and when it does occur in an uptrend it is followed by a really strong reversal. For this reason it is also known as the 'Black swan' pattern.
We're now deep into the retracement and a bit above the proposed "Big sell level". If this turned into a failed fifth, we have a false breakout above the sell level and a rejection from that - that'd imply a downtrend. It'd imply essentially a "Crash" relative to the 1 hour chart. Not that big a deal, the question is are we also going to see bearish patterns continue to develop on the big charts? That could be a very big deal.
I'm super bearish on SPX under 4500. I think if we see a strong rejection of SPX from this level we'll see an SPX in the 2000's again. It's not a meme. A hard drop in the SPX can take it down 50%. Gaining 100% in one yr and being 25% without a 5% pullback above the previous high - can end badly.
We're now deep into the retracement and a bit above the proposed "Big sell level". If this turned into a failed fifth, we have a false breakout above the sell level and a rejection from that - that'd imply a downtrend. It'd imply essentially a "Crash" relative to the 1 hour chart. Not that big a deal, the question is are we also going to see bearish patterns continue to develop on the big charts? That could be a very big deal.
I'm super bearish on SPX under 4500. I think if we see a strong rejection of SPX from this level we'll see an SPX in the 2000's again. It's not a meme. A hard drop in the SPX can take it down 50%. Gaining 100% in one yr and being 25% without a 5% pullback above the previous high - can end badly.
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